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Monetary-Fiscal Mix and Inflation Performance: Evidence from the U.S

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  • Carlo A. Favero
  • Tommaso Monacelli

Abstract

There has been a lot of interest recently in developing small scale rule-based empirical macro models for the analysis of monetary policy. These models, based on the conventional view that inflation stabilization should be a concern of monetary policy only, have typically neglected the role of fiscal policy. We start with the evidence that a baseline VAR-augmented Taylor rule can deliver recurrent mispredictions of inflation in the U.S. before 1987. We then show that a fiscal feed-back rule, in which the primary deficit reacts to both the output gap and the government debt, can well characterize the behavior of fiscal policy throughout the sample. However, by employing Markov-switching methods, we find evidence of substantial instability across fiscal regimes. Yet this precisely happens QTR{it}{before 1987}. We then augment the monetary VAR with a fiscal policy rule and control for the endogenous regime switches for both rules. We find that only over time windows belonging to the pre-1987 period the model based on the two rules can predict the behavior of inflation better than the one based just on the monetary policy rule. QTR{it}{After 1987}, when fiscal policy is estimated to switch to a regime of fiscal discipline, the monetary-fiscal mix can be appropriately described as a regime of monetary dominance. Over this period a monetary policy rule based model is always a better predictor of the inflation behavior than the one comprising both a monetary and a fiscal rule.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlo A. Favero & Tommaso Monacelli, 2003. "Monetary-Fiscal Mix and Inflation Performance: Evidence from the U.S," Working Papers 234, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  • Handle: RePEc:igi:igierp:234
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    Cited by:

    1. Edda Zoli, 2005. "How does fiscal policy affect monetary policy in emerging market countries?," BIS Working Papers 174, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Murray, James, 2014. "Fiscal Policy Uncertainty and Its Macroeconomic Consequences," MPRA Paper 57409, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. V. Anton Muscatelli & Tiziano Ropele & Patrizio Tirelli, 2004. "Macroeconomic Adjustment in the Euro-area: The Role of Fiscal Policy," Working Papers 2005_20, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised May 2005.
    4. Peter Claeys, 2006. "Policy mix and debt sustainability: evidence from fiscal policy rules," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 89-112, June.
    5. Peter Claeys, 2007. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy under the budget constraint," IREA Working Papers 200715, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jul 2007.
    6. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2007. "Optimal simple and implementable monetary and fiscal rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1702-1725, September.
    7. Artis, Michael J & Onorante, Luca, 2006. "The Economic Importance of Fiscal Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 5684, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Pogorelec, Sabina, 2006. "Fiscal and monetary policy in the enlarged European Union," Working Paper Series 655, European Central Bank.
    9. Valdivia, Daney, 2015. "Handbook on DSGE models: some useful tips in modeling a DSGE models," MPRA Paper 61347, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Giammarioli, Nicola & Annicchiarico, Barbara & Piergallini, Alessandro, 2006. "Fiscal policy in a monetary economy with capital and finite lifetime," Working Paper Series 661, European Central Bank.
    11. Dennis Bonam & Bart Hobijn, 2016. "Generalized stability of monetary unions under regime switching in monetary and fiscal policies," DNB Working Papers 524, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    12. António Afonso, 2008. "Ricardian fiscal regimes in the European Union," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 313-334, July.
    13. Muscatelli, V. Anton & Tirelli, Patrizio & Trecroci, Carmine, 2004. "Fiscal and monetary policy interactions: Empirical evidence and optimal policy using a structural New-Keynesian model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 257-280, June.
    14. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Giammarioli, Nicola & Piergallini, Alessandro, 2012. "Budgetary policies in a DSGE model with finite horizons," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 111-130.
    15. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2006. "Optimal Simple and Implementable Monetary and Fiscal Rules: Expanded Version," NBER Working Papers 12402, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Süleyman Bolat & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Mihai Mutascu, 2014. "The behaviour of US and UK public debt: further evidence based on time varying parameters," Working Papers halshs-01107962, HAL.
    17. V. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli & Carmine Trescroci, 2003. "Fiscal and Monetary policy Interactions in a New Keynesian Model with Liquidity Constraints," Working Papers 2005_19, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Apr 2005.
    18. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2007. "Generalizing the Taylor Principle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 607-635, June.
    19. Vázquez, Jesús, 2008. "The comovement between monetary and fiscal policy instruments during the post-war period in the U.S," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 412-424.
    20. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli & Carmine Trecroci, 2004. "Can Fiscal Policy Help Macroeconomic Stabilisation? Evidence from a New Keynesian Model with Liquidity Constraints," CESifo Working Paper Series 1171, CESifo Group Munich.
    21. Gonzalez-Astudillo, Manuel, 2011. "Policy Rule Coefficients Driven by Latent Factors: Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions in an Endowment Economy," MPRA Paper 29976, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Luca Sala, 2004. "The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level: Identifying Restrictions and Empirical Evidence," Working Papers 257, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    23. Valdivia, Daney & Pérez, Danyira, 2013. "Dinámica económica y coordinación de políticas fiscal – monetaria en América Latina: Evaluación a través de una DSGE
      [Dynamic economic and coordination on fiscal – monetary policies in Latin Améric
      ," MPRA Paper 51562, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Agustin Garcia & M. J. Arroyo & R. Minguez & J. Uxo, 2009. "Estimation of a fiscal policy rule for EMU countries (1984-2005)," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(7), pages 869-884.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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