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Liquidity Traps with Global Taylor Rules

Author

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  • Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe

    () (Rutgers University)

  • Martin Uribe

    () (University of Pennsylvania)

Abstract

A key result of a recent literature that focuses on the global consequences of Taylor-type interest rate feedback rules is that such rules in combination with the zero bound on nominal interest rates can lead to unintended liquidity traps. An immediate question posed by this result is whether the government could avoid liquidity traps by ignoring the zero bound, that is, by threatening to set the nominal interest rate at a negative value should the inflation rate fall below a certain threshold. This paper shows that even if the government could credibly commit to setting the interest rate at a negative value, self-fulfilling liquidity traps can still emerge. That is, deflationary equilibria originating arbitrarily near the intended equilibrium and leading to low (possibly zero) interest rates and low (and possibly negative) rates of inflation cannot be ruled out by lifting the zero bound on the monetary policy rule. This result obtains in models with flexible and sticky prices and under continuous and discrete time.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2000. "Liquidity Traps with Global Taylor Rules," Departmental Working Papers 200014, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:rut:rutres:200014
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Bennett T. McCallum, 2002. "Consistent Expectations, Rational Expectations, Multiple-Solution Indeterminacies, and Least-Squares Learnability," NBER Working Papers 9218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Dufrénot, Gilles & Khayat, Guillaume A., 2017. "Monetary Policy Switching In The Euro Area And Multiple Steady States: An Empirical Investigation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(05), pages 1175-1188, July.
    3. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2003. "Backward-looking interest-rate rules, interest-rate smoothing, and macroeconomic instability," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1379-1423.
    4. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2002. "Chaotic Interest-Rate Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 72-78, May.
    5. Marco Bassetto, 2004. "Negative Nominal Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 104-108, May.
    6. Adão, Bernardino & Correia, Isabel & Teles, Pedro, 2014. "Short and long interest rate targets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 95-107.
    7. Duarte, Fernando M., 2016. "How to escape a liquidity trap with interest rate rules," Staff Reports 776, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, revised 01 Dec 2016.
    8. Bernardino Adão & Isabel Correia & Pedro Teles, 2004. "Monetary policy with single instrument feedback rules," Working Paper Series WP-04-30, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    9. Julien Albertini & Hong Lan, 2016. "The importance of time-varying parameters in new Keynesian models with zero lower bound," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2016-013, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    10. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2004. "Chaotic Interest Rate Rules: Expanded Version," NBER Working Papers 10272, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Gilles Dufrénot & Anwar Khayat, 2014. "Monetary Policy Switching in the Euro Area and Multiple Equilibria: An Empirical Investigation," Working Papers halshs-00973504, HAL.
    12. repec:eee:matsoc:v:88:y:2017:i:c:p:16-27 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Cornaro, Alessandra & Agliari, Anna, 2011. "Global and local determinacy in a one-step forward looking New Keynesian model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1354-1362, May.
    14. Daria ONORI & Francesco MAGRIS & Antoine LE RICHE, 2017. "Monetary Rules in a Two-Sector Endogenous Growth Model with Cash-in-Advance Constraint," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2504, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    15. Le Riche, Antoine & Magris, Francesco & Parent, Antoine, 2017. "Liquidity Trap and stability of Taylor rules," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 16-27.
    16. Bennett McCallum, 2002. "Inflation Targeting and the Liquidity Trap," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.), Inflation Targeting: Desing, Performance, Challenges, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 9, pages 395-438 Central Bank of Chile.
    17. Klaeffling, Matt & López Pérez, Víctor, 2003. "Inflation targets and the liquidity trap," Working Paper Series 272, European Central Bank.
    18. Bernardino Adão & Isabel Correia & Pedro Teles, 2004. "Monetary policy with single instrument feedback rules," Working Paper Series WP-04-30, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    19. Michael D. Bordo, 2014. "Exiting from Low Interest Rates to Normality: An Historical Perspective," Economics Working Papers 14110, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    liquidity traps; Taylor rules ; zero bound on nominal interest rates;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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