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Do the Secondary Markets Believe in Life After Debt?

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Abstract

This paper employs panel-data econometric techniques to explore the relations between measures of credit worthiness and the debt discounts on the secondary markets. It investigates empirically whether the secondary market discounts reflect a history of past repayments problems or whether they anticipate future debt crises. The answer to this question has implications about the desirability of debt relief. The main finding is that the secondary markets do not seem rapidly to absorb economic information, which suggests that they are still in their evolutionary stage and are not very efficient. The estimated models are also used to analyze issues in the international finance literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou, 1989. "Do the Secondary Markets Believe in Life After Debt?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 911, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:911
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    Cited by:

    1. Lisa M. Schineller, 1997. "An econometric model of capital flight from developing countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 579, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Peter Rowland, 2004. "The Colombian Sovereign Spread And Its Determinants," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003572, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    3. Peter Rowland, 2005. "Buyback of Colombian Sovereign Debt," Borradores de Economia 331, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Mamoru Kaneko & Jacek Prokop, 1993. "A game theoretical approach to the international debt overhang," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 1-24, February.
    5. Barbone, Luca & Forni, Lorenzo, 1997. "Are markets learning? : behavior in the secondary market for Brady bonds," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1734, The World Bank.
    6. Cumby, Robert E. & Pastine, Tuvana, 2001. "Emerging market debt: measuring credit quality and examining relative pricing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 591-609, October.
    7. Raquel Fernandez & Sule Ozler, 1991. "Debt Concentration and Secondary Markets Prices: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," NBER Working Papers 3654, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Lestano & Jacobs, Jan & Kuper, Gerard H., 2003. "Indicators of financial crises do work! : an early-warning system for six Asian countries," CCSO Working Papers 200313, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
    9. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 1998. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging-Market Debt: Fundamentals or Market Sentiment?," NBER Working Papers 6408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. A. Georgievska & L. Georgievska & A. Stojanovic & N. Todorovic, 2008. "Sovereign rescheduling probabilities in emerging markets: a comparison with credit rating agencies' ratings," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(9), pages 1031-1051.
    11. Peter Rowland, 2005. "Buyback Of Colombian Sovereign Debt," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002073, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    12. Ozler, Sule*Huizinga, Harry, 1991. "How factors in creditor countries affect secondary market prices for developing country debt," Policy Research Working Paper Series 622, The World Bank.
    13. Hajivassiliou, V A, 1994. "A Simulation Estimation Analysis of the External Debt Crises of Developing Countries," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(2), pages 109-131, April-Jun.
    14. Lisa M. Schineller, 1997. "A nonlinear econometric analysis of capital flight," International Finance Discussion Papers 594, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Edda Zoli, 2004. "Credit Rationing in Emerging Economies' Access to Global Capital Markets," IMF Working Papers 04/70, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Fernandez, Raquel & Ozler, Sule, 1991. "Debt concentration and secondary market prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 570, The World Bank.
    17. Kalotychou, Elena & Staikouras, Sotiris K., 2006. "An empirical investigation of the loan concentration risk in Latin America," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 363-384, October.
    18. Sawada, Yasuyuki, 2001. "Secondary market efficiency for LDC bank loans and international private lending, 1985-1993," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 549-562, August.
    19. Sule Ozler & Harry Huizinga, 1992. "Bank Exposure, Capital and Secondary Market Discounts on the Developing Country Debt," NBER Working Papers 3961, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Chikako Oka, 2003. "Anticipating Arrears to the IMF Early Warning Systems," IMF Working Papers 03/18, International Monetary Fund.
    21. David McKenzie, 2001. "An Econometric analysis of IBRD creditworthiness," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 427-448.
    22. Zeaiter, Hussein & El-Khalil, Raed, 2016. "Extreme bounds of sovereign defaults: Evidence from the MENA region," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 391-410.
    23. Chakrabarti, Avik & Zeaiter, Hussein, 2014. "The determinants of sovereign default: A sensitivity analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 300-318.
    24. Clark, Ephraim & Kassimatis, Konstantinos, 2004. "Country financial risk and stock market performance: the case of Latin America," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 21-41.
    25. Lee, Suk Hun & Sung, Hyun Mo & Urrutia, Jorge L., 1996. "The behavior of secondary market prices of LDC syndicated loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 537-554, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Debt crisis; debt relief; international finance;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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