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Fiscal sustainability and monetary versus fiscal dominance: evidence from Brazil, 1991-2000

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  • Evan Tanner
  • Alberto Ramos

Abstract

Under a monetary dominant (MD) regime, the primary surplus adjusts to limit debt growth, permitting monetary policy to be conducted independently of fiscal financing requirements. In Brazil, some evidence favours an MD regime for 1995-1997, but not for the decade of the 1990s as a whole. While fiscal adjustments of 1999 yielded a primary surplus of about 3% of GDP, consistent with solvency, a credible MD regime would require further adjustments of the primary surplus if debt increases, growth falls, or interest rates rise.

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  • Evan Tanner & Alberto Ramos, 2003. "Fiscal sustainability and monetary versus fiscal dominance: evidence from Brazil, 1991-2000," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(7), pages 859-873.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:35:y:2003:i:7:p:859-873
    DOI: 10.1080/0003684032000056832
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    2. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2000. "Understanding the fiscal theory of the price level," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q II, pages 2-38.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrea Fracasso, 2006. "The role of foreign and domestic factors in the evolution of the Brazilian EMBI spread and debt dynamics," IHEID Working Papers 22-2007, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Jul 2007.
    2. Lamia Bazzaoui & Jun Nagayasu, 2021. "Is Inflation Fiscally Determined?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-26, October.
    3. Nissan Liviatan, 2003. "Fiscal Dominance and Monetary Dominance in the Israeli Monetary Experience," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2003.17, Bank of Israel.
    4. Heba Youssef Mohammed Hashem, 2017. "Inflation in Egypt: A fiscal or monetary phenomenon?," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 13(4), pages 522-535, October.
    5. Ms. Garima Vasishtha & Mr. Taimur Baig & Mr. Manmohan S. Kumar & Ms. Edda Zoli, 2006. "Fiscal and Monetary Nexus in Emerging Market Economies: How Does Debt Matter?," IMF Working Papers 2006/184, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Vladimir Teles & Joaquim Andrade, 2008. "Monetary policy and country risk," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(15), pages 2021-2028.
    7. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Carmen Diaz-Roldan & Vicente Esteve, 2008. "US deficit sustainability revisited: a multiple structural change approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(12), pages 1609-1613.
    8. Fan, Jingwen & Minford, Patrick, 2009. "Can the Fiscal Theory of the price level explain UK inflation in the 1970s?," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2009/26, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised Mar 2011.
    9. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Díaz-Roldán, Carmen & Esteve, Vicente, 2009. "Deficit sustainability and inflation in EMU: An analysis from the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 525-539, December.
    10. Tashevska, Biljana & Trpkova-Nestorovska, Marija & Trenovski, Borce, 2017. "Estimating a fiscal reaction function for the South East European countries," MPRA Paper 91298, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2018.
    11. Fan, Jingwen & Minford, Patrick & Ou, Zhirong, 2013. "The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level - identification and testing for the UK in the 1970s," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2013/12, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    12. Carlos De Resende & Nooman Rebei, 2008. "The Welfare Implications of Fiscal Dominance," Staff Working Papers 08-28, Bank of Canada.
    13. Fan, Jingwen & Minford, Patrick & Ou, Zhirong, 2016. "The role of fiscal policy in Britain's Great Inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 203-218.
    14. Goran Petrevski & Borce Trenovski & Biljana Tashevska, 2019. "The effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies in a small open economy – the case of Macedonia," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(6), pages 805-821, November.
    15. William C. Gruben & John H. Welch, 2010. "Is Tighter Fiscal Policy Expansionary Under Fiscal Dominance?: Hypercrowding Out In Latin America," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 28(2), pages 171-181, April.
    16. Ko, Jun-Hyung & Morita, Hiroshi, 2015. "Fiscal sustainability and regime shifts in Japan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 364-375.
    17. Ricardo Ramalhete Moreira, 2017. "Pro-cyclical fiscal policy in Brazil: long- and short-term relationships using cointegration and error correction model (2005-2015)," International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 10(2), pages 171-184.
    18. International Monetary Fund, 2006. "Zambia: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix," IMF Staff Country Reports 2006/118, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Obinyeluaku, Moses & Viegi, Nicola, 2009. "How does fiscal policy affect monetary policy in the Southern African Community (SADC)?," MPRA Paper 15372, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Peter Claeys & Raúl Ramos & Jordi Suriñach, 2008. "Testing the FTPL across government tiers," IREA Working Papers 200812, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Oct 2008.
    21. Mr. Evan C Tanner, 2013. "Fiscal Sustainability: A 21st Century Guide for the Perplexed," IMF Working Papers 2013/089, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Helton Saulo & Leandro Rêgo & Jose Divino, 2013. "Fiscal and monetary policy interactions: a game theory approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 206(1), pages 341-366, July.
    23. Moreira, Tito Belchior S. & e Souza, Geraldo da Silva & Almeida, Charles Lima de, 2007. "The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level and the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policies: The Brazilian Case," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 27(1), May.

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