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Aging and Deflation from a Fiscal Perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Mitsuru Katagiri

    () (Bank of Japan)

  • Hideki Konishi

    () (Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University)

  • Kozo Ueda

    () (Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University)

Abstract

Negative correlations between inflation and demographic aging were observed across developed nations recently. To understand the phenomenon from a politico-economic perspective, we embed the fiscal theory of the price level into an overlapping-generations model. In the model, successive short-lived governments choose income tax rates and bond issues considering the political influence of existing generations and the policy response of future governments. The model sheds new light on the traditional debate about the burden of national debt. Because of price adjustments, the accumulation of government debt does not become a burden on future generations. Our analysis reveals that the effects of aging depend on its causes. Aging is deflationary when caused by an increase in longevity but inflationary when caused by a decline in birth rate. Numerical simulation shows that aging over the past 40 years in Japan generated deflation of about 0.6 percentage points annually.

Suggested Citation

  • Mitsuru Katagiri & Hideki Konishi & Kozo Ueda, 2014. "Aging and Deflation from a Fiscal Perspective," Working Papers 1413, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1413
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Fujita, Shigeru & Fujiwara, Ippei, 2016. "Declining Trends In The Real Interest Rate And Inflation: The Role Of Aging," Working Papers 16-29, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    2. Igor Fedotenkov, 2016. "Population ageing and inflation with endogenous money creation," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 23, Bank of Lithuania.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal theory of the price level; Politico-economic equilibrium;

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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