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Euro area time‐varying fiscal sustainability

Author

Listed:
  • António Afonso
  • João Tovar Jalles

Abstract

We assess the time‐varying features of fiscal sustainability in the euro area via revisiting the empirical relationship between the primary budget surplus and the debt‐to‐GDP ratio. Focusing on a sample of 11 Euro‐area countries between 1999Q1 and 2013Q4 and by means of time series analyses, we find that (a) fiscal policy seems to have been sustainable in Belgium, France, Germany, and the Netherlands and a Ricardian (monetary dominant) regime might have been present; (b) debt exhibited a negative response following an innovation in the budget surplus in half of the sample; (c) the time‐varying coefficient model shows that the 2008–2009 global economic and financial crisis exerted a sizeable negative impact on fiscal sustainability; and (d) expenditure‐based fiscal rules are strong determinants of fiscal sustainability. All in all, we found some evidence against the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level.

Suggested Citation

  • António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2017. "Euro area time‐varying fiscal sustainability," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(3), pages 244-254, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:22:y:2017:i:3:p:244-254
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    Cited by:

    1. António Afonso & José Alves & José Carlos Coelho & Jamel Saadaoui, 2025. "Fiscal and External Sustainability: a Two-Step Time-varying Granger Causality Assessment," Working Papers REM 2025/0369, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    2. Afonso, António & Alves, José, 2025. "Does government spending efficiency improve fiscal sustainability?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA).
    3. Afonso, António & Coelho, José Carlos, 2023. "Public finances solvency in the Euro Area," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 642-657.
    4. Ahmad Hassan Ahmad & Olalekan Bashir Aworinde, 2021. "Fiscal and External Deficits Nexus in GIIPS Countries: Evidence from Parametric and Nonparametric Causality Tests," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 27(3), pages 171-184, August.
    5. António Afonso & José Alves & Sofia Monteiro, 2025. "Private investment and public investment: total rates of return and global balances in the OECD," Working Papers REM 2025/0363, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    6. Vladimir Andrić & Milojko Arsić & Aleksandra Nojković, 2016. "Public Debt Sustainability In Serbia Before And During The Global Financial Crisis," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 61(210), pages 47-78, July - Se.
    7. Luc Eyraud & Xavier Debrun & Andrew Hodge & Victor Duarte Lledo & Catherine A Pattillo, 2018. "Second-Generation Fiscal Rules; Balancing Simplicity, Flexibility, and Enforceability," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 18/04, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Neto, David, 2020. "Tracking fiscal discipline. Looking for a PIIGS on the wing," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 147-154.
    9. Emilio Congregado & Carmen Díaz-Roldán & Vicente Esteve, 2023. "Deficit sustainability and fiscal theory of price level: the case of Italy, 1861–2020," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 50(3), pages 755-782, August.
    10. António Afonso & José Alves & Sofia Monteiro, 2024. "The pressure is on: how geopolitical tensions impact institutional fiscal and external stability responses," Working Papers REM 2024/0318, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    11. António Afonso & José Alves & José Carlos Coelho, 2025. "Determinants of the degree of fiscal sustainability," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 1190-1205, April.
    12. Afonso, Antonio & Alves, José & Ionta, Serena, 2025. "Monetary policy surprise shocks under different fiscal regimes: A panel analysis of the Euro Area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    13. Serena Ionta & António Afonso & José Alves, 2025. "Monetary policy surprises and fiscal sustainability: the case of the Euro Area," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1-20, June.
    14. Amélie BARBIER-GAUCHARD & Nicolas MAZUY, 2018. "Country-specific fiscal reaction functions: what lessons for EMU ?," Working Papers of BETA 2018-28, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    15. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Laura Sauci, 2020. "Public finances in the EU-27: Are they sustainable?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 181-204, February.
    16. Andric, Vladimir & Arsic, Milojko & Nojkovic, Aleksandra, 2016. "Public Debt Sustainability in Serbia-Evidence from Transition and the Great Recession," EconStor Preprints 126682, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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