Speculative Hyperinflations in Maximizing Models: Can We Rule Them Out?
Knife-edge stability is a common property of dynamic monetary models assuming perfect foresight or rational expectations. These models can be closed with the assumption that the economy's equilibrium lies on the unique convergent path (the saddlepath). While this empirically plausible assumption yields sensible results, aggregative models are not specified in sufficient detail to allow one to prove that the saddlepath is the unique equilibrium path. Brock (1974, 1975) and Brock and Scheinkman (1980) have advanced models in which individual preferences are more fully specified and in which, under certain conditions, the uniqueness and stability of equilibrium can be rigorously demonstrated. This paper shows that these uniqueness conditions are economically unreasonable. Therefore, the question these maximizing models address remains unresolved.
|Date of creation:||Feb 1982|
|Publication status:||published as Obstfeld, Maurice, and Kenneth Rogoff. "Speculative Hyperinflations in Maximizing Models: Can We Rule Them Out?" Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 91, No. 4, (August 1983), pp. 675-687. Journal of Economic Literature, Vol . 22, No. 1, (March 1984).|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Rodriguez, Carlos Alfredo, 1980. "The Role of Trade Flows in Exchange Rate Determination: A Rational Expectations Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(6), pages 1148-1158, December.
- Brock, William A., 1975. "A simple perfect foresight monetary model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 133-150, April.
- Calvo, Guillermo A, 1979. "On Models of Money and Perfect Foresight," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 20(1), pages 83-103, February.
- Robert E. Lucas, Jr. & Thomas J. Sargent, 1979. "After Keynesian macroeconomics," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr.
- Salant, Stephen W, 1983. "The Vulnerability of Price Stabilization Schemes to Speculative Attack," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 1-38, February.
- Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1973. "The Stability of Models of Money and Growth with Perfect Foresight," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(6), pages 1043-1048, November.
- Maurice Obstfeld, 1981. "Inflation, Real Interest, and the Determinacy of Equilibrium in an Optimizing Framework," NBER Working Papers 0723, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gray, Jo Anna, 1984.
"Dynamic Instability in Rational Expectations Models: An Attempt to Clarify,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 93-122, February.
- Jo Anna Gray, 1982. "Dynamic instability in rational expectations models: an attempt to clarify," International Finance Discussion Papers 197, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Calvo, Guillermo A., 1978. "On the indeterminacy of interest rates and wages with perfect foresight," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 321-337, December.
- Kouri, Pentti J K, 1976. " The Exchange Rate and the Balance of Payments in the Short Run and in the Long Run: A Monetary Approach," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 280-304.
- Brock, William A, 1974. "Money and Growth: The Case of Long Run Perfect Foresight," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 15(3), pages 750-777, October.
- Martin L. Weitzman, 1973. "Duality Theory for Infinite Horizon Convex Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 19(7), pages 783-789, March.
- Brock, William A. & Scheinkman, J. A., 1979. "Some Remarks on Monetary Policy in an Overlapping Generations Model," Working Papers 246, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
- Flood, Robert P & Garber, Peter M, 1980. "Market Fundamentals versus Price-Level Bubbles: The First Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(4), pages 745-770, August.
- Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1975. "An Equilibrium Model of the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(6), pages 1113-1144, December.
- Taylor, John B, 1977. "Conditions for Unique Solutions in Stochastic Macroeconomic Models with Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(6), pages 1377-1385, September.
- Anonymous, 1978. "Gasohol from Grain- The Economic Issues," Economics Statistics and Cooperative Services (ESCS) Reports 142842, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
- Fischer, Stanley, 1974. "Money and the Production Function," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(4), pages 517-533, December. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0855. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.