IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/0723.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Inflation, Real Interest, and the Determinacy of Equilibrium in an Optimizing Framework

Author

Listed:
  • Maurice Obstfeld

Abstract

This paper examines the short-run relation between anticipated inflation and the real rate of interest in a model where agents with perfect foresight maximize utility over infinite lifetimes. In addition to deriving behavioral functions from explicit intertemporal optimization, the approach taken here departs from the usual IS-LM analysis in that it is dynamic and deals with a small economy open to trade in consumption goods. Because capital mobility must be ruled out to allow scope for variation in the real interest rate, the results obtained here for one of the two exchange- rate regimes considered -- free floating -- apply equally to a closed economy. The paper shows that an increase in the expected inflation rate depresses the real interest rate in the short run when the exchange rate is instantaneously fixed by the central bank. When equilibrium is determinate in the floating-rate case, the real interest rate is invariant with respect to inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Maurice Obstfeld, 1981. "Inflation, Real Interest, and the Determinacy of Equilibrium in an Optimizing Framework," NBER Working Papers 0723, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0723
    Note: ITI IFM
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w0723.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fischer, Stanley, 1979. "Capital Accumulation on the Transition Path in a Monetary Optimizing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(6), pages 1433-1439, November.
    2. Brock, William A., 1975. "A simple perfect foresight monetary model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 133-150, April.
    3. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1978. "On the indeterminacy of interest rates and wages with perfect foresight," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 321-337, December.
    4. Brock, William A, 1974. "Money and Growth: The Case of Long Run Perfect Foresight," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 15(3), pages 750-777, October.
    5. Robert Mundell, 1963. "Inflation and Real Interest," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71, pages 280-280.
    6. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1979. "Backward and Forward Solutions for Economies with Rational Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 114-118, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Speculative Hyperinflations in Maximizing Models: Can We Rule Them Out?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 675-687, August.
    2. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Thouraya Hadj Amor & Christophe Rault, 2011. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Volatility and International Financial Integration: A Dynamic GMM Panel Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 3645, CESifo.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Speculative Hyperinflations in Maximizing Models: Can We Rule Them Out?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 675-687, August.
    2. Grishchenko, Olesya V., 2011. "Asset pricing in the production economy subject to monetary shocks," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 187-216, May.
    3. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
    4. Ravenna, Federico & Seppälä, Juha, 2007. "Monetary policy, expected inflation and inflation risk premia," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 18/2007, Bank of Finland.
    5. Marco Airaudo, 2017. "Complex stock price dynamics under Max Weber’s spirit of capitalism hypothesis," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 64(1), pages 47-73, June.
    6. Petrucci, Alberto, 1997. "Money, Labour Supply and Growth in a Liquidity Costs Economy," Discussion Papers 9707, University of Exeter, Department of Economics.
    7. Alogoskoufis, G.S. & van der Ploeg, F., 1991. "Money and growth revisited," Discussion Paper 1991-9, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    8. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.
    9. Jeffrey Carmichael, 1982. "Money and Growth: Some Old Theorems from a New Perspective," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 58(4), pages 386-394, December.
    10. Tom Kompas & Omar Abdel-Razeq, 2001. "A Simple Monetary Growth Model with Variable Rates of Time Preference," International and Development Economics Working Papers idec01-10, International and Development Economics.
    11. Abel, Andrew B., 1985. "Dynamic behavior of capital accumulation in a cash-in-advance model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 55-71, July.
    12. Schreft, Stacey L. & Smith, Bruce D., 1997. "Money, Banking, and Capital Formation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 157-182, March.
    13. Rehme, Günther, 2018. "On "rusting" money: Silvio Gesell's Schwundgeld reconsidered," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 233, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
    14. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2021. "Revisiting speculative hyperinflations in monetary models," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 40, pages 1-11, April.
    15. Bennett T. McCallum, 2010. "Indeterminacy, Causality, and the Foundations of Monetary Policy Analysis," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 146(I), pages 107-120, March.
    16. Samuel Gil Martín, 2012. "Liquidity, Welfare and Distribution," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 59(2), pages 217-234, May.
    17. Ravenna, Federico & Seppälä, Juha, 2007. "Monetary policy, expected inflation and inflation risk premia," Research Discussion Papers 18/2007, Bank of Finland.
    18. Buiter, Willem H. & Sibert, Anne C., 2007. "Deflationary Bubbles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(4), pages 431-454, September.
    19. McCallum, Bennett T., 1983. "On non-uniqueness in rational expectations models : An attempt at perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 139-168.
    20. Bewley, Truman, 1983. "A Difficulty with the Optimum Quantity of Money," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1485-1504, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0723. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.