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Indeterminacy, Causality, and the Foundations of Monetary Policy Analysis

  • Bennett T. McCallum

To be useful as a guide to behavior, a model that includes a relationship between x_t and z_t+1 must specify whether x_t is influenced by the expectation at t of z_t+1 or, that z_t+1 is inertially influenced by x_t. We show that, for a broad class of linear RE models, distinct causal specifications will be uniquely associated with distinct solutions. Alternatively, a solution refinement requiring continuity of solution coefficients with respect to basic parameters implies this same solution. For a given structure there is only one RE solution that is fully consistent with the model's specification.

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Article provided by Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES) in its journal Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 146 (2010)
Issue (Month): I (March)
Pages: 107-120

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Handle: RePEc:ses:arsjes:2010-i-3
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  1. Klein, Paul, 2000. "Using the generalized Schur form to solve a multivariate linear rational expectations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1405-1423, September.
  2. Bennett T. McCallum, 2003. "Multiple-Solution Indeterminacies in Monetary Policy Analysis," NBER Working Papers 9837, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Lubik, Thomas A. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2003. "Computing sunspot equilibria in linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 273-285, November.
  4. Sims, Christopher A, 2002. "Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 20(1-2), pages 1-20, October.
  5. Bennett T. McCallum, 2009. "Causality, Structure, and the Uniqueness of Rational Expectations Equilibria," NBER Working Papers 15234, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Bennett T. McCallum, 2008. "Inflation Determination with Taylor Rules: Is New Keynesian Analysis Critically Flawed?," NBER Working Papers 14534, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Cho, Seonghoon & McCallum, Bennett T., 2009. "Another weakness of "determinacy" as a selection criterion for rational expectations models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 17-19, July.
  8. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
  9. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1978. "On the indeterminacy of interest rates and wages with perfect foresight," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 321-337, December.
  10. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1979. "Backward and Forward Solutions for Economies with Rational Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 114-18, May.
  11. King, Robert G & Watson, Mark W, 1998. "The Solution of Singular Linear Difference Systems under Rational Expectations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1015-26, November.
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