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Inflation determination with Taylor rules: Is new-Keynesian analysis critically flawed?

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  • McCallum, Bennett T.

Abstract

Cochrane (2007) has strongly questioned the basic economic logic of current monetary policy analysis, arguing that New Keynesian (NK) models imply rational expectations paths with explosive inflation that do not imply explosions in real variables relevant for transversality conditions. Consequently, the usual logic does not rule out solutions with explosive inflation. That result does not, however, justify negative conclusions about NK analysis, for a different criterion is logically satisfactory. It is that, to be plausible, a RE solution must satisfy the property of least-squares learnability. Adoption of this criterion serves to justify in principle the bulk of current mainstream analysis.

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  • McCallum, Bennett T., 2009. "Inflation determination with Taylor rules: Is new-Keynesian analysis critically flawed?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1101-1108, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:56:y:2009:i:8:p:1101-1108
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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick Minford & Naveen Srinivasan, 2011. "Determinacy in New Keynesian Models: A Role for Money after All?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 211-229, June.
    2. Marco Airaudo & Salvatore Nisticò & Luis‐Felipe Zanna, 2015. "Learning, Monetary Policy, and Asset Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(7), pages 1273-1307, October.
    3. Minford, Patrick & Srinivasan, Naveen, 2011. "Ruling out unstable equilibria in New Keynesian models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(3), pages 247-249, September.
    4. Belongia, Michael T. & Ireland, Peter N., 2014. "The Barnett critique after three decades: A New Keynesian analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(1), pages 5-21.
    5. Duarte, Fernando M., 2016. "How to escape a liquidity trap with interest rate rules," Staff Reports 776, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, revised 01 Dec 2016.
    6. Pei Kuang, 2014. "Learning Dynamics with Data (Quasi-) Differencing," Discussion Papers 15-06, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    7. Cochrane, John H., 2009. "Can learnability save new-Keynesian models?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1109-1113, November.
    8. McCallum, Bennett T. & Nelson, Edward, 2010. "Money and Inflation: Some Critical Issues," Handbook of Monetary Economics,in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 3, pages 97-153 Elsevier.
    9. Gasteiger, Emanuel, 2011. "Heterogeneous expectations, Taylor rules and the merit of monetary policy inertia," MPRA Paper 31004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Norman, Thomas W.L., 2015. "Learning, hypothesis testing, and rational-expectations equilibrium," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 93-105.
    11. Mahir Binici & Yin-Wong Cheung, 2011. "Exchange Rate Dynamics under Alternative Optimal Interest Rate Rules," CESifo Working Paper Series 3577, CESifo Group Munich.
    12. Airaudo, Marco, 2013. "Monetary policy and stock price dynamics with limited asset market participation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-22.
    13. Balfoussia, Hiona & Brissimis, Sophocles & Delis, Manthos D, 2011. "The theoretical framework of monetary policy revisited," MPRA Paper 32236, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. McCallum, Bennett T., 2015. "Nominal GDP targeting: Policy rule or discretionary splurge?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 76-80.
    15. Canzoneri, Matthew & Cumby, Robert & Diba, Behzad, 2010. "The Interaction Between Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Handbook of Monetary Economics,in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 17, pages 935-999 Elsevier.
    16. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Trabandt, Mathias & Walentin, Karl, 2010. "DSGE Models for Monetary Policy Analysis," Handbook of Monetary Economics,in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 7, pages 285-367 Elsevier.
    17. Chakraborty, Lekha & Varma, Kushagra Om, 2015. "Efficacy of New Monetary Framework and Determining Inflation in India: An Empirical Analysis of Financially Deregulated Regime," Working Papers 15/153, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    18. Balfoussia, Hiona & Brissimis, Sophocles & Delis, Manthos D, 2011. "The theoretical framework of monetary policy revisited," MPRA Paper 32236, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Bennett T. McCallum, 2010. "Indeterminacy, Causality, and the Foundations of Monetary Policy Analysis," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 146(I), pages 107-120, March.
    20. Irena Woroniecka-Leciejewicz, 2015. "Equilibrium strategies in a fiscal-monetary game. A simulation analysis," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Technology, Institute of Organization and Management, vol. 2, pages 75-100.
    21. Duarte, Fernando M. & Zabai, Anna, 2015. "An interest rate rule to uniquely implement the optimal equilibrium in a liquidity trap," Staff Reports 745, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    22. Blake, Andrew P., 2012. "Determining optimal monetary speed limits," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(2), pages 269-271.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Determinacy Transversality Learnability New Keynesian Explosive;

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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