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The learnability criterion and monetary policy

  • James B. Bullard

Expectations of the future play a large role in macroeconomics. The rational expectations assumption, which is commonly used in the literature, provides an important benchmark, but may be too strong for some applications. This paper reviews some recent research that has emphasized methods for analyzing models of learning, in which expectations are not initially rational but which may become rational eventually provided certain conditions are met. Many of the applications are in the context of popular models of monetary policy. The goal of the paper is to provide a largely nontechnical survey of some, but not all, of this work and to point out connections to some related research.

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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its journal Review.

Volume (Year): (2006)
Issue (Month): May ()
Pages: 203-217

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2006:i:may:p:203-217:n:v.88no.3
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  1. Michael Woodford, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy inertia," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  2. Bullard, James & Cho, In-Koo, 2005. "Escapist policy rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1841-1865, November.
  3. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C., 2005. "The decline of activist stabilization policy: Natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1927-1950, November.
  4. George Evans & William Branch, 2003. "Intrinsic Heterogeneity in Expectation Formation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 312, Society for Computational Economics.
  5. repec:cup:macdyn:v:4:y:2000:i:3:p:373-414 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Guse, Eran A., 2005. "Stability properties for learning with heterogeneous expectations and multiple equilibria," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 1623-1642, October.
  7. Milani, Fabio, 2008. "Learning, monetary policy rules, and macroeconomic stability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3148-3165, October.
  8. David Andolfatto & Paul Gomme, 2001. "Monetary policy regimes and beliefs," Working Paper 9905, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  9. Stephen J. DeCanio, 1979. "Rational Expectations and Learning from Experience," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 93(1), pages 47-57.
  10. Duffy, John & Xiao, Wei, 2004. "The value of interest rate stabilization polices when agents are learning," Working Papers 2004-02, University of New Orleans, Department of Economics and Finance.
  11. Bray, Margaret, 1982. "Learning, estimation, and the stability of rational expectations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 318-339, April.
  12. George Evans, 1985. "Expectational Stability and the Multiple Equilibria Problem in Linear Rational Expectations Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1217-1233.
  13. Arifovic, Jasmina, 2000. "Evolutionary Algorithms In Macroeconomic Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(03), pages 373-414, September.
  14. Martin Ellison & Tony Yates, 2007. "Escaping Volatile Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(4), pages 981-993, 06.
  15. Woodford, Michael, 1986. "Learning to Believe in Sunspots," Working Papers 86-16, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  16. James B. Bullard & Kaushik Mitra, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Working Papers 2000-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  17. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "Monetary policy and learning," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q3, pages 11-16.
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