Intrinsic Heterogeneity in Expectation Formation
We introduce the concept of a Misspecification Equilibrium to dynamic macroeconomics. Agents choose between a list of misspecified econometric models and base their selection on relative forecast performance. A Misspecification Equilibrium is an equilibrium stochastic process in which agents forecast optimally given their choices, with the forecasting model parameters and predictor proportions endogenously determined. For appropriate conditions on the exogenous driving process and the degree of feedback of expectations, the Misspecification Equilibrium will exhibit Intrinsic Heterogeneity. With Intrinsic Heterogeneity more than one misspecified model receives positive weight in the distribution of predictors across agents, even in the neoclassical limit in which only the most successful predictors are used.
|Date of creation:||16 May 2003|
|Date of revision:||04 Oct 2004|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (541) 346-4661
Fax: (541) 346-1243
Web page: http://economics.uoregon.edu/Email:
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ore:uoecwp:2003-32. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bill Harbaugh)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.