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Monetary policy, indeterminacy and learning

  • Evans, George W.
  • McGough, Bruce

Forward-looking monetary models with Taylor-type interest rate rules are known to generate indeterminacies, with a potential dependence on extraneous "sunspots," for some structural and policy parameters. We investigate the stability of these solutions under adaptive learning, focusing on "common factor" or "resonant frequency" representations in which the observed sunspot has a suitable time-series structure. We consider specifications incorporating both lagged and expected inflation in the Phillips Curve, and both expected and inertial elements in the policy rule. We find that some policy rules can indeed lead to learnable sunspot solutions and we investigate the conditions under which this phenomenon arises.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 29 (2005)
Issue (Month): 11 (November)
Pages: 1809-1840

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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:29:y:2005:i:11:p:1809-1840
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  1. George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2002. "Indeterminacy and the Stability Puzzle in Non-Convex Economies," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2002-14, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 27 Aug 2005.
  2. Woodford, Michael, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(0), pages 1-35, Supplemen.
  3. McCallum, Bennett T., 1999. "Issues in the design of monetary policy rules," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 23, pages 1483-1530 Elsevier.
  4. Farmer Roger E. A. & Guo Jang-Ting, 1994. "Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 42-72, June.
  5. Howitt, P. & Mcfee, R.P., 1990. "Animal Spirits," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 9005, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
  6. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2001. "Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2001-6, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 03 Aug 2001.
  7. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2005. "Performance of monetary policy with internal central bank forecasting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 627-658, April.
  8. Woodford, Michael, 1986. "Learning to Believe in Sunspots," Working Papers 86-16, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  9. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2002. "Expectational Stability of Stationary Sunspot Equilibria in a Forward-looking Linear Model," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2001-9, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 14 Jan 2002.
  10. Desgranges, Gabriel & Negroni, Giorgio, 2003. "Expectations Coordination On A Sunspot Equilibrium: An Eductive Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(01), pages 7-41, February.
  11. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "The science of monetary policy: A new Keynesian perspective," Economics Working Papers 356, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 1999.
  12. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 1908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. James B. Bullard & Kaushik Mitra, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Working Papers 2000-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  14. Evans, G.E. & Guesnerie, R., 1999. "Coordination on Saddle Path Solutions: the Eductive Viewpoint. 1- Linear Univariate Models," Papers 1999-15, Laval - Laboratoire Econometrie.
  15. Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-159.
  16. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2003. "Existence of adaptively stable sunspot equilibria near an indeterminate steady state," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 125-134, July.
  17. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 1999. "Performance of Operational Policy Rules in an Estimated Semiclassical Structural Model," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 15-56 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2002. "Adaptive learning and monetary policy design," Research Discussion Papers 29/2002, Bank of Finland.
  19. Evans, Geroge W & Honkapohja, Seppo & Romer, Paul, 1998. "Growth Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 495-515, June.
  20. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September.
  21. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1998. "Interest-Rate Rules in an Estimated Sticky Price Model," NBER Working Papers 6618, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Garratt, Anthony & Hall, Stephen G., 1997. "E-equilibria and adaptive expectations: Output and inflation in the LBS model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(7), pages 1149-1171, June.
  23. Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, . "Are Non-Fundamental Equilibria Learnable in Models of Monetary Policy?," Discussion Papers 01/05, Department of Economics, University of York.
  24. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Ramon Marimon, 2002. "Stable Sunspot Equilibira in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2001-5, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 15 Nov 2005.
  25. Ben S. Bernanke & Michael Woodford, 1997. "Inflation forecasts and monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 653-686.
  26. Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2005. "Stable sunspot solutions in models with predetermined variables," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 601-625, April.
  27. Howitt, Peter, 1992. "Interest Rate Control and Nonconvergence to Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 776-800, August.
  28. Evans George W. & Honkapohja Seppo, 1994. "On the Local Stability of Sunspot Equilibria under Adaptive Learning Rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 142-161, October.
  29. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
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