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Optimal Constrained Interest Rate Rules

Author

Listed:
  • Bruce McGough
  • George Evans

Abstract

The monetary policy literature has recently devoted considerable attention to Taylor-type rules, in which the interest rate set by the central bank depends on measures of inflation and aggregate output. We show that if policy-makers attempt to choose the optimal rule within a Taylor-type class they may be led to rules that generate indeterminacy and/or instability under learning. This problem is compounded by uncertainty about structural parameters. We advocate a procedure in which policy-makers restrict attention to rules that lie in the determinate stable region for all plausible calibrations, and which minimize the expected loss, computed using structural parameter priors, subject to this constraint

Suggested Citation

  • Bruce McGough & George Evans, 2004. "Optimal Constrained Interest Rate Rules," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 134, Society for Computational Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf4:134
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Suleyman Basak & Georgy Chabakauri, 2012. "Dynamic Hedging in Incomplete Markets: A Simple Solution," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(6), pages 1845-1896.
    2. Tetlow, Robert J. & von zur Muehlen, Peter, 2009. "Robustifying learnability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 296-316, February.
    3. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.), Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 2, pages 027-076 Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Bask, Mikael & Proaño, Christian R., 2016. "Optimal monetary policy under learning and structural uncertainty in a New Keynesian model with a cost channel and inflation inertia," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 112-126.
    5. George Waters, 2017. "Nominal GDP targeting under learning," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(1), pages 153-159, January.
    6. George Waters, 2011. "Dangers of commitment under rational expectations," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 35(4), pages 371-381, October.
    7. Evans George W & McGough Bruce, 2010. "Implementing Optimal Monetary Policy in New-Keynesian Models with Inertia," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-25, March.
    8. Kurozumi, Takushi & Van Zandweghe, Willem, 2012. "Learning about monetary policy rules when labor market search and matching frictions matter," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 523-535.
    9. Best, Gabriela, 2015. "A New Keynesian model with staggered price and wage setting under learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 96-111.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy; Taylor Rules; Indeterminacy; E-stability; parameter uncertainty; robust rules.;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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