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Monetary policy and the transition to rational expectations

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  • Giuseppe Ferrero

Abstract

Under the assumption of bounded rationality, economic agents learn from their past mistaken predictions by combining new and old information to form new beliefs. The purpose of this paper is to examine how the policy-maker, by affecting private agents' learning process, determines the speed at which the economy converges to the rational expectation equilibrium. I find that by reacting strongly to private agents' expected inflation, a central bank would increase the speed of convergence. I assess the relevance of the transition period from the learning to the rational expectations equilibrium when looking at a criterion for evaluating monetary policy decisions and suggest that a fast convergence is not always suitable

Suggested Citation

  • Giuseppe Ferrero, 2004. "Monetary policy and the transition to rational expectations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 19, Society for Computational Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf4:19
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2005. "Inflation scares and forecast-based monetary policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 498-527, April.
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    6. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(4), pages 807-824.
    7. Bray, Margaret, 1982. "Learning, estimation, and the stability of rational expectations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 318-339, April.
    8. Albert Marcet & Thomas J. Sargent, 1992. "Speed of convergence of recursive least squares learning with ARMA perceptions," Economics Working Papers 15, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    9. Giannitsarou, Chryssi, 2006. "Supply-side reforms and learning dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 291-309, March.
    10. Federico Cingano & Fabiano Schivardi, 2004. "Identifying the Sources of Local Productivity Growth," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(4), pages 720-742, June.
    11. Michael Woodford, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy inertia," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    12. Kosuke Aoki & Kalin Nikolov, 2006. "Rule-Based Monetary Policy under Central Bank Learning," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2004, pages 145-195 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. James Bullard & Kaushik Mitra, 2007. "Determinacy, Learnability, and Monetary Policy Inertia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(5), pages 1177-1212, August.
    14. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1999. "Learning dynamics," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 449-542 Elsevier.
    15. Paolo Finaldi Russo & Luigi Leva, 2004. "Il debito commerciale in Italia: quanto contano le motivazioni finanziarie?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 496, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Eugenio Gaiotti & Alessandro Secchi, 2004. "Is there a cost channel of monetary policy transmission? An investigation into the pricing behaviour of 2,000 firms," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 525, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. GEORGE W. EVANS & BRUCE McGOUGH, 2007. "Optimal Constrained Interest-Rate Rules," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(6), pages 1335-1356, September.
    3. Martin Fukac, 2005. "Should Private Expectations Concern Central Bankers?," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp277, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    4. Alberto Locarno, 2007. "Imperfect Knowledge, Adaptive Learning, and the Bias Against Activist Monetary Policies," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(3), pages 47-85, September.
    5. Michele Berardi, 2009. "Monetary Policy with Heterogeneous and Misspecified Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(1), pages 79-100, February.
    6. Michele Berard, 2006. "Monetary policy with heterogeneous and misspecified expectations," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0637, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    7. Martin Fukac, 2006. "New Keynesian Model Dynamics under Heterogeneous Expectations and Adaptive Learning," Working Papers 2006/5, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    8. Sergey Slobodyan & Atanas Christev, 2006. "On learnability of E–stable equilibria," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 451, Society for Computational Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy; Rational Expectations; Learning; Speed of Convergence;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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