Recurrent Hyperinflations and Learning
We use a model of boundedly rational learning to account for the observations of recurrent hyperinflations in the 1980's. In a standard monetary model we replace the assumption of full rational expectations by a formal definition of quasi-rational learning. The model under learning matches some crucial stylized facts observed during the recurrent hyperinflations experienced by several countries in the 1980's remarkably well. We argue that, despite being a small departure from rational expectations, quasi-rational learning does not preclude falsifiability of the model, it does not violate reasonable rationality requirements, and it can be used for policy evaluation.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 93 (2003)
Issue (Month): 5 (December)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: https://www.aeaweb.org/aer/|
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: https://www.aeaweb.org/subscribe.html|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Marcet, Albert & Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 1998.
"Recurrent Hyperinflations and Learning,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1875, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Albert Marcet & Juan P. Nicolini, 1995. "Recurrent hyperinflations and learning," Economics Working Papers 244, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Nov 2001.
- Marcet, A. & Nicolini, J.P., 1997. "Recurrent Hyperinflations and Learning," Papers 9721, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
- Kurz, Mordecai, 1994. "On Rational Belief Equilibria," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(6), pages 859-76, October.
- Bray, Margaret M & Savin, Nathan E, 1986. "Rational Expectations Equilibria, Learning, and Model Specification," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1129-60, September.
- Fudenberg, Drew & Levine, David, 1995.
"Consistency and Cautious Fictitious Play,"
3198694, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo & Marimon, Ramon, 1996.
"Convergence in Monetary Inflation Models with Heterogeneous Learning Rules,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1310, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo & Marimon, Ramon, 2001. "Convergence In Monetary Inflation Models With Heterogeneous Learning Rules," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(01), pages 1-31, February.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1982.
"Speculative Hyperinflations in Maximizing Models: Can We Rule Them Out?,"
NBER Working Papers
0855, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Speculative Hyperinflations in Maximizing Models: Can We Rule Them Out?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 675-87, August.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1981. "Speculative hyperinflations in a maximizing models: can we rule them out?," International Finance Discussion Papers 195, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 1983. "Speculative Hyperinflations in Maximizing Models: Can We Rule Them Out?," Scholarly Articles 12491027, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Eckstein, Zvi & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1992.
"Seigniorage and the welfare cost of inflation: Evidence from an intertemporal model of money and consumption,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 389-410, June.
- Zvi Eckstein & Leonardo Leiderman, 1991. "Seigniorage and the welfare cost of inflation: evidence from an intertemporal model of money and consumption," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 40, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Eckstein, Z. & Leiderman, L., 1991. "Seignorage and the Welfare Cost of Inflation; Evidence from an Intertemporal Model of Money and Consumption," Papers 7-91, Tel Aviv.
- David Easley & Aldo Rustichini, 1999. "Choice without Beliefs," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1157-1184, September.
- Hommes, Cars & Sorger, Gerhard, 1998. "Consistent Expectations Equilibria," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(03), pages 287-321, September.
- repec:cup:macdyn:v:2:y:1998:i:2:p:156-82 is not listed on IDEAS
- Carlos E. Zarazaga, 1993. "Hyperinflations and moral hazard in the appropriation of seigniorage," Working Papers 93-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 1996. "Ruling out speculative hyperinflations The role of the government," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 791-809, May.
- repec:cup:macdyn:v:2:y:1998:i:3:p:287-321 is not listed on IDEAS
- Arifovic, Jasmina & Bullard, James & Duffy, John, 1997. " The Transition from Stagnation to Growth: An Adaptive Learning Approach," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 185-209, July.
- Timmermann, Allan G, 1993. "How Learning in Financial Markets Generates Excess Volatility and Predictability in Stock Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(4), pages 1135-45, November.
- M. Funke & S. Hall & M. Solá, 1993.
"Rational bubbles during Polland’s hiperinflation: implications and empirical evidence,"
Documentos de Trabajo (working papers)
1193, Department of Economics - dECON.
- Funke, Michael & Hall, Stephen & Sola, Martin, 1994. "Rational bubbles during Poland's hyperinflation: Implications and empirical evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1257-1276, June.
- George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 1993. "Adaptive forecasts, hysteresis, and endogenous fluctuations," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-13.
- Imrohoroglu, Selahattin, 1993. "Testing for sunspot equilibria in the German hyperinflation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 289-317.
- Hildegart Ahumada & Alfredo Canavese & Pablo Sanguinetti & Walter Sosa Escudero, 1993. "Efectos distributivos del impuesto inflacionario: una estimación para el caso argentino," Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, , vol. 0(2), pages 329-383, July-Dece.
- Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August.
- Evans, George W. & Ramey, Garey, 1998. "Calculation, Adaptation And Rational Expectations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(02), pages 156-182, June.
- Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1995. "Local Convergence of Recursive Learning to Steady States and Cycles in Stochastic Nonlinear Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(1), pages 195-206, January.
- Bental, B. & Eckstein, Z., 1995. "A Neoclassical Interpretation of Inflation and Stabilization in Israel," Papers 28-95, Tel Aviv.
- Kiguel, Miguel A & Neumeyer, Pablo Andres, 1995. "Seigniorage and Inflation: The Case of Argentina," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 672-82, August.
- Michael Bruno & Guido Di Tella & Rudiger Dornbusch & Stanley Fischer, 1988. "Inflation Stabilization: The Experience of Israel, Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, and Mexico," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022796, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:93:y:2003:i:5:p:1476-1498. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jane Voros)or (Michael P. Albert)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.