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Properties of equilibrium asset prices under alternative learning schemes

  • Massimo Guidolin
  • Allan Timmerman

This paper characterizes equilibrium asset prices under adaptive, rational and Bayesian learning schemes in a model where dividends evolve on a binomial lattice. The properties of equilibrium stock and bond prices under learning are shown to differ significantly compared with prices under full information rational expectations. Learning causes the discount factor and risk-neutral probability measure to become path-dependent and introduces serial correlation and volatility clustering in stock returns. We also derive conditions under which the expected value and volatility of stock prices will be higher under learning than under full information. Finally, we derive restrictions on prior beliefs under which Bayesian and rational learning lead to identical prices and show how the results can be generalized to more complex settings where dividends follow either multi-state i.i.d. distributions or multi-state Markov chains.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2005-009.

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Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, January 2007, 31(1)
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2005-009
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