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Consumption and the Stock Market: Interpreting International Experience

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  • John Y. Campbell

Abstract

This paper reviews the behavior of stock prices in relation to consumption. The paper lists some important stylized facts that characterize US data, and relates them to recent developments in equilibrium asset pricing theory. Data from other countries are examined to see which features of the US experience apply more generally. The paper argues that to make sense of stock market behavior one needs a model in which investors' risk aversion is both high and varying, such as the external habit-formation model of Campbell and Cochrane (1995).
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Suggested Citation

  • John Y. Campbell, 1996. "Consumption and the Stock Market: Interpreting International Experience," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1763, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:fth:harver:1763
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rosenberg, Joshua V. & Engle, Robert F., 2002. "Empirical pricing kernels," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 341-372, June.
    2. Sellin, Peter, 1998. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Working Paper Series 72, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    3. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2003. "Option prices under Bayesian learning: implied volatility dynamics and predictive densities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 717-769, March.
    4. Brennan, Michael J. & Xia, Yihong, 2001. "Stock price volatility and equity premium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 249-283, April.
    5. K L Chawla & Pankaj Kumar Gupta, 2014. "Financial Perspectives of Globalization in Emerging Economies ? Concerns for India," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 0401601, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    6. Brennan, Michael & Xia, Yihong, 1997. "Stock Price Volatility, Learning, and the Equity Premium," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt3zw2w634, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    7. Angelo Melino & Alan X. Yang, 2003. "State Dependent Preferences Can Explain the Equity Premium Puzzle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(4), pages 806-830, October.
    8. Sellin, Peter, 2001. " Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 491-541, September.
    9. Cunado Eizaguirre, Juncal & Biscarri, Javier Gomez & Hidalgo, Fernando Perez de Gracia, 2004. "Structural changes in volatility and stock market development: Evidence for Spain," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1745-1773, July.
    10. Yanick Desnoyers, 2001. "L'effet de la richesse sur la consommation aux États-Unis," Staff Working Papers 01-14, Bank of Canada.
    11. Simon, András & Várpalotai, Viktor, 2001. "Eladósodás, kockázat és óvatosság
      [Optimal indebtedness in a small open economy showing precautionary behaviour]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(5), pages 363-392.
    12. Alessandro Penati & Luigi Zingales, 1997. "Efficiency and Distribution in Financial Restructuring: The Case of the Ferruzzi Group," CRSP working papers 466, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
    13. Azam Mohammadzadeh & Mohammad Nabi Shahiki Tash & Reza Roshan, 2016. "Investigating and Comparing Some Consumption-based Asset Pricing Models: The Case of Iran," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(4), pages 1884-1894.
    14. Robert J. Barro, 1995. "Optimal Debt Management," NBER Working Papers 5327, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Chen, Ming-Hsiang, 2003. "Risk and return: CAPM and CCAPM," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 369-393.
    16. Hjelm, Goran, 2002. "Is private consumption growth higher (lower) during periods of fiscal contractions (expansions)?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 17-39, March.
    17. Gordon, Stephen & St-Amour, Pascal, 1997. "Asset Prices with Contingent Preferences," Cahiers de recherche 9712, Université Laval - Département d'économique, revised 08 Jun 1998.
    18. Pascal St-Amour & Stephen Gordon, 2000. "A Preference Regime Model of Bull and Bear Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 1019-1033, September.
    19. A. Bayar & K. Mc Morrow, 1999. "Determinants of private consumption," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 135, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    20. Laurian Lungu & Patrick Minford, 2006. "Explaining The Equity Risk Premium," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 74(6), pages 670-700, December.
    21. Guidolin, Massimo, 2003. "International asset prices and portfolio choices under Bayesian learning," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 383-437, December.
    22. Rockinger, Michael & Urga, Giovanni, 2000. "The Evolution of Stock Markets in Transition Economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 456-472, September.
    23. Chen, Ming-Hsiang & Bidarkota, Prasad V., 2004. "Consumption equilibrium asset pricing in two Asian emerging markets," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 305-319, April.
    24. Rodriguez, Juan Carlos, 2006. "Consumption, the persistence of shocks, and asset price volatility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1741-1760, November.
    25. Jeremy J. Siegel & Richard H. Thaler, 1997. "Anomalies: The Equity Premium Puzzle," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 191-200, Winter.

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