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Structural Breaks, Incomplete Information and Stock Prices

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  • Timmermann, Allan

Abstract

This paper presents empirical evidence on the existence of structural breaks in the fundamentals process underlying US stock prices. We develop an asset pricing model that represents breaks in the context of a Markov switching process with an expanding set of non-recurring states. Different hypotheses on how investors form expectations about future dividends after a break are proposed and analyzed. A model in which investors do not have full information about the parameters of the dividend process but gradually update their beliefs as new information arrives is shown to induce skewness, kurtosis, volatility clustering and the serial correlation in stock returns after a break.

Suggested Citation

  • Timmermann, Allan, 2001. "Structural Breaks, Incomplete Information and Stock Prices," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt1sn269d7, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsdec:qt1sn269d7
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