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Determinants of stock market volatility and risk premia

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  • Mordecai Kurz

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  • Hehui Jin
  • Maurizio Motolese

Abstract

We show the dynamics of diverse beliefs is the primary propagation mechanism of volatility in asset markets. Hence, we treat the characteristics of the market beliefs as a primary, primitive, explanation of market volatility. We study an economy with stock and riskless bond markets and formulate a financial equilibrium model with diverse and time varying beliefs. Agents’ states of belief play a key role in the market, requiring an endogenous expansion of the state space. To forecast prices agents must forecast market states of belief which are beliefs of ‘‘others’’ hence our equilibrium embodies the Keynes ‘‘Beauty Contest.’’ A ‘‘market state of belief’’ is a vector which uniquely identifies the distribution of conditional probabilities of agents. Restricting beliefs to satisfy the rationality principle of Rational Belief (see Kurz, 1994, 1997) our economy replicates well the empirical record of the (i) moments of the price/dividend ratio, risky stock return, riskless interest rate and the equity premium; (ii) Sharpe ratio and the correlation between risky returns and consumption growth; (iii) predictability of stock returns and price/dividend ratio as expressed by: (I) Variance Ratio statistic for long lags, (II) autocorrelation of these variables, and (III) mean reversion of the risky returns and the predictive power of the price/dividend ratio. Also, our model explains the presence of stochastic volatility in asset prices and returns. Two properties of beliefs drive market volatility: (i) rationalizable over confidence implying belief densities with fat tails, and (ii) rationalizable asymmetry in frequencies of bull or bear states. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2005

Suggested Citation

  • Mordecai Kurz & Hehui Jin & Maurizio Motolese, 2005. "Determinants of stock market volatility and risk premia," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 109-147, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:annfin:v:1:y:2005:i:2:p:109-147
    DOI: 10.1007/s10436-004-0004-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kurz, Mordecai & Motolese, Maurizio, 2006. "Risk Premia, diverse belief and beauty contests," MPRA Paper 247, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Rieger, Jörg, 2014. "Financial Transaction Tax and Financial Market Stability with Diverse Beliefs," Working Papers 0563, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    3. Mordecai Kurz & Maurizio Motolese, 2011. "Diverse beliefs and time variability of risk premia," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 47(2), pages 293-335, June.
    4. Mordecai Kurz & Maurizio Motolese & Giulia Piccillo & Howei Wu, 2015. "Monetary Policy with Diverse Private Expectations," Discussion Papers 15-004, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    5. Tadeusz Kowalski & Yochanan Shachmurove, 2011. "An Historical Walk Through Recent Financial Crises," PIER Working Paper Archive 11-019, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    6. Cogley, Timothy & Sargent, Thomas J., 2008. "The market price of risk and the equity premium: A legacy of the Great Depression?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 454-476, April.
    7. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Properties of equilibrium asset prices under alternative learning schemes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 161-217, January.
    8. Mordecai Kurz, 2011. "Symposium: on the role of market belief in economic dynamics, an introduction," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 47(2), pages 189-204, June.
    9. A. A. Brown & L. C. G. Rogers, 2009. "Heterogeneous Beliefs with Finite-Lived Agents," Papers 0907.4953, arXiv.org.
    10. Kowalski, Tadeusz & Shachmurove, Yochanan, 2011. "The financial crisis: What is there to learn?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 238-247.
    11. Angus A Brown & L C G Rogers, 2010. "Diverse Beliefs," Papers 1001.1450, arXiv.org.
    12. Kurz, Mordecai & Jin, Hehui & Motolese, Maurizio, 2005. "The role of expectations in economic fluctuations and the efficacy of monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 2017-2065, November.
    13. Tim W. Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "The Market Price of Risk and the Equity Premium," Working Papers 522, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    14. Kurz, Mordecai, 2008. "Beauty contests under private information and diverse beliefs: How different?," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(7-8), pages 762-784, July.
    15. repec:eur:ejesjr:184 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Bidarkota, Prasad V. & Dupoyet, Brice V. & McCulloch, J. Huston, 2009. "Asset pricing with incomplete information and fat tails," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1314-1331, June.
    17. Massimo Guidolin, 2006. "High equity premia and crash fears - Rational foundations," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 28(3), pages 693-708, August.
    18. Francisco Azeredo, 2014. "The equity premium: a deeper puzzle," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 347-373, August.
    19. A. A. Brown, 2009. "Heterogeneous Beliefs with Partial Observations," Papers 0907.4950, arXiv.org.
    20. Suda, J., 2013. "Belief shocks and the macroeconomy," Working papers 434, Banque de France.
    21. Mordecai Kurz, 2007. "Rational Diverse Beliefs and Economic Volatility," Discussion Papers 06-045, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    22. Kurz, Mordecai, 2006. "Beauty contests under private information and diverse beliefs: how different?," MPRA Paper 233, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2006.
    23. Tadeusz Kowalski & Yochanan Shachmurove, 2011. "John Maynard Keynes: Is That you Knocking on the Door?," Working Papers 56, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Market states of beliefs; Market volatility; Equity risk premium; Riskless rate; Over confidence; Heterogenous beliefs; Rational belief; Optimism; Pessimism; Empirical distribution; G1; G12; E43; E44; D58; D84;

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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