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Prospect Theory and Asset Prices

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Listed:
  • Nicholas BARBERIS

    (University of Chicago)

  • Ming HUANG

    (Stanford University)

  • Tano SANTOS

    (University of Chicago)

Abstract

We study asset prices in an economy where investors derive direct utility not only from consumption but also from fluctuations in the value of their financial wealth. They are loss averse over these fluctuations and the degree of loss aversion depends on their prior investment performance. We find that our framework can help explain the high mean, excess volatility and predictability of stock returns, as well as their low correlation with consumption growth. The design of our model is influenced by prospect theory and by experimental evidence on how prior outcomes affect risky choice.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicholas BARBERIS & Ming HUANG & Tano SANTOS, 2000. "Prospect Theory and Asset Prices," FAME Research Paper Series rp16, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
  • Handle: RePEc:fam:rpseri:rp16
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ågren, Martin, 2005. "Myopic Loss Aversion, the Equity Premium Puzzle, and GARCH," Working Paper Series 2005:11, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    2. Matthew C. Li, 2003. "Wealth, Volume and Stock Market Volatility: Case of Hong Kong (1993-2001)," Trinity Economics Papers 20035, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    3. Yacine Aït-Sahalia, 2001. "Variable Selection for Portfolio Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1297-1351, August.
    4. John Heaton & Deborah Lucas, 2000. "Stock Prices and Fundamentals," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1999, Volume 14, pages 213-264 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Levy, Haim & Levy, Moshe, 2002. "Experimental test of the prospect theory value function: A stochastic dominance approach," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 1058-1081, November.
    6. John Y. Campbell, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1515-1567, August.
    7. Fielding, David & Stracca, Livio, 2007. "Myopic loss aversion, disappointment aversion, and the equity premium puzzle," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 250-268, October.
    8. Aaron Tornell, 2000. "Robust-H-infinity Forecasting and Asset Pricing Anomalies," NBER Working Papers 7753, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Pietro Veronesi, "undated". "Belief-dependent Utilities, Aversion to State-Uncertainty and Asset Prices,”," CRSP working papers 529, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
    10. Patricia Tovar, 2004. "The Effects of Loss Aversion on Trade Policy and the Anti-Trade Bias Puzzle," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 499, Econometric Society.
    11. Masini, Andrea & Menichetti, Emanuela, 2012. "The impact of behavioural factors in the renewable energy investment decision making process: Conceptual framework and empirical findings," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 28-38.
    12. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert & Liu, Jun, 2005. "Why stocks may disappoint," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 471-508, June.
    13. Aaron Tornell, 2003. "Robust-H_infinity Forecasting and Asset Pricing Anomalies (December 2001)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 237, UCLA Department of Economics.
    14. Tan Wang, 2000. "Updating Rules for Non-Bayesian Preferences," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0157, Econometric Society.
    15. Tomoyuki Nakajima, 2003. "Sunspot Fluctuations in Asset Prices and Business Cycles in Japan Over 1986-1999," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 54(3), pages 253-274.
    16. Dacorogna, Michel M. & Gençay, Ramazan & Müller, Ulrich A. & Pictet, Olivier V., 2001. "Effective return, risk aversion and drawdowns," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 289(1), pages 229-248.
    17. Mark E. Wohar & David E. Rapach, 2005. "Return Predictability and the Implied Intertemporal Hedging Demands for Stocks and Bonds: International Evidence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 329, Society for Computational Economics.
    18. Curatola, Giuliano & Faia, Ester, 2016. "Divergent Risk-Attitudes and Endogenous Collateral Constraints," CEPR Discussion Papers 11678, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Rabin, Matthew, 2000. "Inference by Believers in the Law of Small Numbers," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4sw8n41t, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    20. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2009. "Multi-period portfolio choice and the intertemporal hedging demands for stocks and bonds: International evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 427-453, April.
    21. Ajay Bhootra & Jungshik Hur, 2015. "High Idiosyncratic Volatility and Low Returns: A Prospect Theory Explanation," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 44(2), pages 295-322, June.
    22. Zin, Stanley E., 2002. "Are behavioral asset-pricing models structural?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 215-228, January.
    23. Lynch, Anthony W., 2001. "Portfolio choice and equity characteristics: characterizing the hedging demands induced by return predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 67-130, October.
    24. Stracca, Livio, 2004. "Behavioral finance and asset prices: Where do we stand?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 373-405, June.

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    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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