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Speculative trading with rational beliefs and endogenous uncertainty


  • Ho-Mou Wu
  • Wen-Chung Guo


This paper introduces the framework of rational beliefs of Kurz (1994), which makes the assumptions of heterogeneous beliefs of Harrison and Kreps (1978) and Morris (1996) more plausible. Agents hold diverse beliefs that are “rational” in the sense of being compatible with ample observed data. In a non-stationary environment the agents only learn about the stationary measure of observed data, but their beliefs can remain non-stationary and diverse. Speculative trading then stems from disagreements among traders. In a Markovian framework of dividends and beliefs, we obtain analytical results to show how the speculative premium depends on the extent of heterogeneity of beliefs. In addition, we demonstrate that there exists a unique Rational Belief Equilibrium (RBE) generically with endogenous uncertainty (as defined by Kurz and Wu, 1996) and that the RBE price is higher than the rational expectation equilibrium price (REE) under some general conditions Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2003

Suggested Citation

  • Ho-Mou Wu & Wen-Chung Guo, 2003. "Speculative trading with rational beliefs and endogenous uncertainty," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 21(2), pages 263-292, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:joecth:v:21:y:2003:i:2:p:263-292 DOI: 10.1007/s00199-002-0303-x

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Anderson, Christopher M. & Plott, Charles R. & Shimomura, K.-I.Ken-Ichi & Granat, Sander, 2004. "Global instability in experimental general equilibrium: the Scarf example," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 209-249, April.
    2. Timothy Cason & Stanley Reynolds, 2005. "Bounded rationality in laboratory bargaining with asymmetric information," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 25(3), pages 553-574, April.
    3. Charles N. Noussair & Charles R. Plott & Raymond G. Riezman, 2013. "An Experimental Investigation of the Patterns of International Trade," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: International Trade Agreements and Political Economy, chapter 17, pages 299-328 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Gode, Dhananjay K & Sunder, Shyam, 1993. "Allocative Efficiency of Markets with Zero-Intelligence Traders: Market as a Partial Substitute for Individual Rationality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(1), pages 119-137, February.
    5. Steven Gjerstad, 2004. "Market Dynamics in Edgeworth Exchange," Microeconomics 0401006, EconWPA.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kurz, Mordecai & Motolese, Maurizio, 2006. "Risk Premia, diverse belief and beauty contests," MPRA Paper 247, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. A. A. Brown & L. C. G. Rogers, 2009. "Heterogeneous Beliefs with Finite-Lived Agents," Papers 0907.4953,
    3. Kurz, Mordecai, 2008. "Beauty contests under private information and diverse beliefs: How different?," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(7-8), pages 762-784, July.
    4. Kurz, Mordecai & Jin, Hehui & Motolese, Maurizio, 2005. "The role of expectations in economic fluctuations and the efficacy of monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 2017-2065, November.
    5. Kurz, Mordecai, 2006. "Beauty contests under private information and diverse beliefs: how different?," MPRA Paper 233, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2006.
    6. Carsten Krabbe Nielsen, 2004. "Rational overconfidence and excess volatility in general equilibrium," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 157, Econometric Society.
    7. repec:pal:assmgt:v:17:y:2016:i:7:d:10.1057_jam.2016.19 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Angel Asensio, 2012. "On Keynes’s Seminal Innovation and Related Essential Features: Revisiting the Notion of Equilibrium in The General Theory," Chapters,in: Keynes’s General Theory, chapter 1 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Angel Asensio, 2011. "Inflation Targeting Drawbacks in the Absence of a ‘Natural’ Anchor: A Keynesian Appraisal of the Fed and ECB Policies from 1999 to 2006," Chapters,in: Credit, Money and Macroeconomic Policy, chapter 11 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. A. A. Brown, 2009. "Heterogeneous Beliefs with Partial Observations," Papers 0907.4950,
    11. Angus A Brown & L C G Rogers, 2010. "Diverse Beliefs," Papers 1001.1450,
    12. Chichilnisky, Graciela & Wu, Ho-Mou, 2006. "General equilibrium with endogenous uncertainty and default," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(4-5), pages 499-524, August.
    13. Mordecai Kurz & Hehui Jin & Maurizio Motolese, 2005. "Determinants of stock market volatility and risk premia," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 109-147, July.
    14. Mordecai Kurz, 2007. "Rational Diverse Beliefs and Economic Volatility," Discussion Papers 06-045, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    15. Mordecai Kurz & Maurizio Motolese, 2011. "Diverse beliefs and time variability of risk premia," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 47(2), pages 293-335, June.
    16. Agnes Bialecki & Eleonore Haguet & Gabriel Turinici, 2014. "Existence of an Equilibrium for Lower Semicontinuous Information Acquisition Functions," Post-Print hal-00723189, HAL.
    17. Angel Asensio, 2013. "Teaching Keynes’s theory to neoclassically formed minds," Chapters,in: Teaching Post Keynesian Economics, chapter 10, pages 163-186 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Nielsen, Carsten Krabbe, 2008. "On rationally confident beliefs and rational overconfidence," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 381-404, May.
    19. Maurizio MOTOLESE & NAKATA Hiroyuki, 2016. "Endogenous Fluctuations and Social Welfare under Credit Constraints and Heterogeneous Beliefs," Discussion papers 16082, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

    More about this item


    Keywords and Phrases: Speculation; Asset pricing; Rational beliefs; Endogenous uncertainty.; JEL Classification Numbers: D84; G12.;

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations


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