Beauty contests under private information and diverse beliefs: how different?
Abstract: The paper contrasts theories that explain diverse belief by asymmetric private information (in short PI) with theories which postulate agents use subjective heterogenous beliefs (in short HB). We focus on problems where agents forecast aggregates such as profit rate of the S&P500 and our model is similar to the one used in the literature on asset pricing (e.g. Brown and Jennings (1989), Grundy and McNichols (1989), Allen, Morris and Shin (2003)). We first argue there is no a-priori conceptual basis to assuming PI about economic aggregates. Since PI is not observed, models with PI offer no testable hypotheses, making it possible to prove anything with PI. In contrast, agents with HB reveal their forecasts hence data on market belief is used to test hypotheses of HB. We show the common knowledge assumptions of the PI theory are implausible. The theories differ on four main analytical issues. (1) The pricing theory under PI implies prices have infinite memory and at each t depend upon unobservable variables. In contrast, under HB prices have finite memory and depend only upon observable variables. (2) The “Beauty Contest” implications of the two are different. Under PI today’s price depends upon today’s market belief about tomorrow’s mean belief about “fundamental” variables. Under HB it depends upon today’s market belief about tomorrow’s market beliefs. Tomorrow’s beliefs are, in part, beliefs about future beliefs and are often mistaken. Market forecast mistakes are key to Beauty Contests, and are a central cause of market uncertainty called “endogenous uncertainty.” (3) Contrary to PI, theories with HB have wide empirical implications which are testable with available data. (4) PI theories assume unobserved data and hence do not restrict behavior, while rationality conditions impose restrictions on any HB theory. We explain the tight restrictions on the model’s parameters imposed by the theory of Rational Beliefs.
|Date of creation:||04 Aug 2006|
|Date of revision:||Apr 2006|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Wang, Jiang, 1959- & He, Hua., 1994.
"Differential information and dynamic behavior of stock trading volume,"
3731-94., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- He, Hua & Wang, Jiang, 1995. "Differential Information and Dynamic Behavior of Stock Trading Volume," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(4), pages 919-72.
- Hua He and Jiang Wang., 1993. "Differential Information and Dynamic Behavior of Stock Trading Volume," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-228, University of California at Berkeley.
- Hua He & Jiang Wang, 1995. "Differential Information and Dynamic Behavior of Stock Trading Volume," NBER Working Papers 5010, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2005. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination?," FAME Research Paper Series rp155, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
- Mordecai Kurz & Maurizio Motolese, .
"Endogenous Uncertainty and Market Volatility,"
99005, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
- Townsend, Robert M, 1978. "Market Anticipations, Rational Expectations, and Bayesian Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 19(2), pages 481-94, June.
- Mordecai Kurz & Hehui Jin & Maurizio Motolese, 2005. "Determinants of stock market volatility and risk premia," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 109-147, 07.
- Kurz, Mordecai & Wu, Ho-Mou, 1996.
"Endogenous Uncertainty in a General Equilibrium Model with Price Contingent Contracts,"
Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 461-88, October.
- Ho-Mou Wu & Mordecai Kurz, 1996. "Endogenous uncertainty in a general equilibrium model with price contingent contracts (*)," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 461-488.
- Mordecai Kurz & Ho-Mou Wu, . "Endogenous Uncertainty in a General Equilibrium Model with Price Contingent Contracts," Working Papers 96002, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
- Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2008.
"Higher Order Expectations in Asset Pricing,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
6648, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Philippe BACCHETTA & Eric VAN WINCOOP, 2004. "Higher Order Expectations in Asset Pricing," FAME Research Paper Series rp110, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
- Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Higher Order Expectations in Asset Pricing," Working Papers 04.03, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
- Swanson, Eric T., 2006. "Have Increases in Federal Reserve Transparency Improved Private Sector Interest Rate Forecasts?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(3), pages 791-819, April.
- Wang, Jiang, 1994. "A Model of Competitive Stock Trading Volume," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(1), pages 127-68, February.
- Christian Hellwig, 2002. "Public Announcements, Adjustment Delays, and the Business Cycle (November 2002)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 208, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Mordecai Kurz & Martin Schneider, 1996.
"Coordination and correlation in Markov rational belief equilibria (*),"
Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 489-520.
- Kutz, M. & Schneider, M., 1996. "Coordination and Correlation in Markov Rational Belief Equilibria," Papers 281, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
- Batchelor, Roy & Dua, Pami, 1991. "Blue Chip Rationality Tests," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(4), pages 692-705, November.
- Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
- Townsend, Robert M, 1983. "Forecasting the Forecasts of Others," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 546-88, August.
- Carsten Krabbe Nielsen, 1996.
"Rational belief structures and rational belief equilibria (*),"
Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 399-422.
- Carsten Krabbe Nielsen, 1995. "Rational Belief Structures and Rational Belief Equilibrium," Discussion Papers 95-14, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Ho-Mou Wu & Wen-Chung Guo, 2003. "Speculative trading with rational beliefs and endogenous uncertainty," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 263-292, 03.
- Phelps, Edmund S, 1969. "The New Microeconomics in Inflation and Employment Theory," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 147-60, May.
- Maurizio Motolese, 2003. "Endogenous uncertainty and the non-neutrality of money," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 317-345, 03.
- Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
- David H. Romer & Christina D. Romer, 2000. "Federal Reserve Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 429-457, June.
- Maurizio Motolese, 2001. "Money non-neutrality in a Rational Belief Equilibrium with financial assets," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 97-126.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:233. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.