IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Modeling diverse expectations in an aggregated New Keynesian Model

  • Kurz, Mordecai
  • Piccillo, Giulia
  • Wu, Howei

We explore a New Keynesian Model with diverse beliefs and study the aggregation problems in the log-linearized economy. We show the solution of these problems depend upon the belief structure. Agents' beliefs are described by individual state variables and satisfy three Rationality Axioms, leading to the emergence of an aggregate state variable named “mean market state of belief.” In equilibrium, endogenous variables are functions of mean market belief and this state variable is the tool used to solve the aggregation problems.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 37 (2013)
Issue (Month): 8 ()
Pages: 1403-1433

in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:37:y:2013:i:8:p:1403-1433
DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2013.01.016
Contact details of provider: Web page:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2002. "Monetary Policy, Expectations and Commitment," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2005-11, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 06 Apr 2005.
  2. Kurz, Mordecai, 2008. "Beauty contests under private information and diverse beliefs: How different?," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(7-8), pages 762-784, July.
  3. Eichenbaum, Martin, 1991. "Real business-cycle theory : Wisdom or whimsy?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 607-626, October.
  4. Branch, William A. & McGough, Bruce, 2009. "A New Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1036-1051, May.
  5. Carl E. Walsh, 2010. "Monetary Theory and Policy, Third Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 3, volume 1, number 0262013770, December.
  6. Rudebusch, Glenn D & Svensson, Lars E O, 1998. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 1999, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Some skeptical observations on real business cycle theory," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 23-27.
  8. Honkapohja, S. & Evans, G.W., 2000. "Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies," University of Helsinki, Department of Economics 481, Department of Economics.
  9. Mordecai Kurz & Maurizio Motolese, . "Endogenous Uncertainty and Market Volatility," Working Papers 99005, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
  10. Mordecai Kurz & Maurizio Motolese, 2007. "Diverse Beliefs and Time Variability of Risk Premia," Discussion Papers 06-044, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
  11. Adam, Klaus, 2005. "Experimental evidence on the persistence of output and inflation," Working Paper Series 0492, European Central Bank.
  12. Anufriev, M. & Assenza, T. & Hommes, C.H. & Massaro, D., 2008. "Interest Rate Rules with Heterogeneous Expectations," CeNDEF Working Papers 08-08, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  13. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2010. "Labor Markets and Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Model with Unemployment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 1-30, April.
  14. Kaushik Mitra & James Bullard, . "Learning About Monetary Policy Rules," Discussion Papers 00/41, Department of Economics, University of York.
  15. Jasmina Arifovic & James Bullard & Olena Kostyshyna, 2013. "Social Learning and Monetary Policy Rules," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 123(567), pages 38-76, 03.
  16. Laurence M. Ball, 1999. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 127-156 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Batchelor, Roy & Dua, Pami, 1991. "Blue Chip Rationality Tests," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(4), pages 692-705, November.
  18. Bill Branch & George W. Evans, 2003. "Intrinsic Heterogeneity in Expectation Formation," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2003-32, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 04 Oct 2004.
  19. Michael Woodford, 2010. "Robustly Optimal Monetary Policy with Near-Rational Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 274-303, March.
  20. Alex Brazier & Richard Harrison & Mervyn King & Tony Yates, 2008. "The Danger of Inflating Expectations of Macroeconomic Stability: Heuristic Switching in an Overlapping-Generations Monetary Model," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 219-254, June.
  21. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
  22. Luca Sala & Antonella Trigari & Mark Gertler, 2007. "An Estimated Monetary DSGE Model with Unemployment and Staggered Nominal Wage Bargaining," 2007 Meeting Papers 353, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  23. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  24. Milani, Fabio, 2010. "Expectation Shocks and Learning as Drivers of the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 7743, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  25. Paul Grauwe, 2011. "Animal spirits and monetary policy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 47(2), pages 423-457, June.
  26. Shinji Takagi, 1991. "Exchange Rate Expectations: A Survey of Survey Studies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(1), pages 156-183, March.
  27. Hehui JIN, 2007. "Nominal Interest Rate Rules under Heterogeneous Beliefs," Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Sociali, Vita e Pensiero, Pubblicazioni dell'Universita' Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, vol. 115(3), pages 403-442.
  28. Massaro, Domenico, 2013. "Heterogeneous expectations in monetary DSGE models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 680-692.
  29. Maurizio Motolese, 2001. "Money non-neutrality in a Rational Belief Equilibrium with financial assets," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 18(1), pages 97-126.
  30. Maurizio Motolese, 2003. "Endogenous uncertainty and the non-neutrality of money," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 21(2), pages 317-345, 03.
  31. Guido Lorenzoni, 2006. "A Theory of Demand Shocks," NBER Working Papers 12477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  32. Kandel, Eugene & Pearson, Neil D, 1995. "Differential Interpretation of Public Signals and Trade in Speculative Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 831-72, August.
  33. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Estimation and Control of a Macroeconomic Model with Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1267-86, September.
  34. Kurz, Mordecai & Jin, Hehui & Motolese, Maurizio, 2003. "The role of expectations in economic fluctuations and the efficacy of monetary policy," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/42, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  35. William Branch & Bruce McGough, 2011. "Business cycle amplification with heterogeneous expectations," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 47(2), pages 395-421, June.
  36. Howitt, Peter, 1992. "Interest Rate Control and Nonconvergence to Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 776-800, August.
  37. Susanto Basu, 1995. "Procyclical Productivity: Increasing Returns or Cyclical Utilization?," NBER Working Papers 5336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  38. Robert E. Lucas Jr., 2003. "Macroeconomic Priorities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 1-14, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:37:y:2013:i:8:p:1403-1433. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.