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Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research

In: Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning

  • George W. Evans

    (University of Oregon)

  • Seppo Honkapohja

    (Centre for Economic Policy Research)

Expectations about the future are central for determination of current macroeconomic outcomes and the formulation of monetary policy. Recent literature has explored ways for supplementing the benchmark of rational expectations with explicit models of expectations formation that rely on econometric learning. Some apparently natural policy rules turn out to imply expectational instability of private agents’ learning. We use the standard New Keynesian model to illustrate this problem and survey the key results for interest-rate rules that deliver both uniqueness and stability of equilibrium under econometric learning. We then consider some practical concerns such as measurement errors in private expectations, observability of variables and learning of structural parameters required for policy. We also discuss some recent applications, including policy design under perpetual learning, estimated models with learning, recurrent hyperinflation, and macroeconomic policy to combat liquidity traps and deflation.

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This chapter was published in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.) Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, , chapter 2, pages 027-076, 2009.
This item is provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series with number v13c02pp027-076.
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