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Policy interaction, expectations and the liquidity trap

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  • George W. Evans

    (Department of Economics, University of Oregon)

  • Seppo Honkapohja

    (Department of Economics, University of Helsinki, Finland)

Abstract

In this paper we consider inflation and government debt dynamics when monetary policy employs a global interest rate rule and private agents’ forecasts using adaptive learning. Because of the zero lower bound on interest rates, active interest rate rules are known to imply the existence of a second, low inflation steady state, below the target inflation rate. Under adaptive learning dynamics we find the additional possibility of a liquidity trap, in which the economy slips below this low inflation steady state and is driven to an even lower inflation floor which, in turn, is supported by a switch to an aggressive money supply rule. Fiscal policy alone cannot push the economy out of the liquidity trap. However, raising the threshold at which the money supply rule is employed can dislodge the economy from the liquidity trap and ensure a return to the target equilibrium.

Suggested Citation

  • George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "Policy interaction, expectations and the liquidity trap," Macroeconomics 0404033, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0404033
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2001. "The Perils of Taylor Rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-2), pages 40-69, January.
    2. Bullard, James & Cho, In-Koo, 2005. "Escapist policy rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1841-1865, November.
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    4. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2002. "Avoiding Liquidity Traps," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(3), pages 535-563, June.
    5. N. Williams, 2002. "Stability and Long Run Equilibrium in Stochastic Fictitious Play," Princeton Economic Theory Working Papers cbeeeb49cc8afc83f125df5a8, David K. Levine.
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    8. Cho, In-Koo & Kasa, Kenneth, 2008. "Learning Dynamics And Endogenous Currency Crises," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(02), pages 257-285, April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bullard, James & Cho, In-Koo, 2005. "Escapist policy rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1841-1865, November.
    2. Adam, Klaus & Billi, Roberto M., 2006. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Commitment with a Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(7), pages 1877-1905, October.
    3. Bartholomew Moore, 2016. "The stability of learning prior to an anticipated change in the target inflation rate," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(3), pages 267-293.
    4. Evans, George W. & Guse, Eran & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2008. "Liquidity traps, learning and stagnation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1438-1463, November.
    5. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2008. "Stabilizing Expectations under Monetary and Fiscal Policy Coordination," NBER Working Papers 14391, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Stefano Eusepi, 2008. "Central bank transparency and nonlinear learning dynamics," Staff Reports 342, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    7. Adam, Klaus & Marcet, Albert, 2011. "Internal rationality, imperfect market knowledge and asset prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1224-1252, May.
    8. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2009. "Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.), Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 2, pages 027-076 Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Emanuel Gasteiger, 2013. "Do heterogeneous expectations constitute a challenge for policy interaction?," Working Papers Series 2 13-02, ISCTE-IUL, Business Research Unit (BRU-IUL).
    10. Gomes, S. & Jacquinot, P. & Mestre, R. & Sousa, J., 2015. "Global policy at the zero lower bound in a large-scale DSGE model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 134-153.
    11. Alstadheim Ragna & Henderson Dale W., 2006. "Price-Level Determinacy, Lower Bounds on the Nominal Interest Rate, and Liquidity Traps," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-27, November.
    12. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Forecasting of small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    13. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2009. "Expectations, Deflation Traps and Macroeconomic Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 7397, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Séverine Menguy, 2016. "Optimal Discretionary Monetary Policy in A Potential Zero Lower Bound Framework," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 2(6), pages 104-126, 06-2016.
    15. Gibbs, Christopher G., 2018. "Learning to believe in secular stagnation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 50-54.
    16. Benhabib, Jess & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2014. "Liquidity traps and expectation dynamics: Fiscal stimulus or fiscal austerity?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 220-238.
    17. André, Marine Charlotte & Dai, Meixing, 2017. "Is central bank conservatism desirable under learning?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 281-296.
    18. Lansing, Kevin J., 2017. "Endogenous Regime Switching Near the Zero Lower Bound," Working Paper Series 2017-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    19. Karel R. S. M. Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2014. "Fiscal Policy in an Expectations-Driven Liquidity Trap," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 81(4), pages 1637-1667.
    20. Branch, William A. & Evans, George W., 2006. "A simple recursive forecasting model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 158-166, May.
    21. George W. Evans, 2008. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy under Learning in the Presence of a Liquidity Trap," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 26, pages 59-86, December.
    22. Loisel, O., 2006. "Bubble-free interest-rate rules," Working papers 161, Banque de France.
    23. Ryo Kato & Yoko Takeda, 2004. "Reviewing US Monetary Policy in Disinflation Era: A Primer," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 04-E-13, Bank of Japan.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    stability of equilibria; fiscal and monetary policy; interest rate and money supply rules;

    JEL classification:

    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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