Policy interaction, expectations and the liquidity trap
In this paper we consider inflation and government debt dynamics when monetary policy employs a global interest rate rule and private agents’ forecasts using adaptive learning. Because of the zero lower bound on interest rates, active interest rate rules are known to imply the existence of a second, low inflation steady state, below the target inflation rate. Under adaptive learning dynamics we find the additional possibility of a liquidity trap, in which the economy slips below this low inflation steady state and is driven to an even lower inflation floor which, in turn, is supported by a switch to an aggressive money supply rule. Fiscal policy alone cannot push the economy out of the liquidity trap. However, raising the threshold at which the money supply rule is employed can dislodge the economy from the liquidity trap and ensure a return to the target equilibrium.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1995. "Local Convergence of Recursive Learning to Steady States and Cycles in Stochastic Nonlinear Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(1), pages 195-206, January.
- Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2006.
"The Conquest of South American Inflation,"
NBER Working Papers
12606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 1999.
"The Perils of Taylor Rules,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2314, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 1998. "The perils of Taylor Rules," Departmental Working Papers 199831, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 1998. "The Perils of Taylor Rules," Working Papers 98-37, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Benhabib, J. & Schmitt-Grohe, S. & Uribe, M., 1999.
"Avoiding Liquidity Traps,"
99-21, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2001. "Avoiding Liquidity Traps," CEPR Discussion Papers 2948, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2000. "Avoiding Liquidity Traps," Departmental Working Papers 199925, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Bullard, James & Cho, In-Koo, 2003.
"Escapist policy rules,"
CFS Working Paper Series
2003/38, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- In-Koo Cho & Noah Williams & Thomas J. Sargent, 2002.
"Escaping Nash Inflation,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 69(1), pages 1-40.
- In-Koo Cho & Kenneth Kasa, 2003.
"Learning Dynamics and Endogenous Currency Crises,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2003
132, Society for Computational Economics.
- N. Williams, 2002. "Stability and Long Run Equilibrium in Stochastic Fictitious Play," Princeton Economic Theory Working Papers cbeeeb49cc8afc83f125df5a8, David K. Levine.
- William Poole, 2002.
49, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0404033. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.