IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/dyncon/v62y2016icp17-42.html

Some searches may not work properly. We apologize for the inconvenience.

   My bibliography  Save this article

Imperfect knowledge, liquidity and bubbles

Author

Listed:
  • Branch, William A.

Abstract

Insufficient liquidity can lead to substantial movements in asset prices. There is a single asset traded in a centralized market that facilitates exchange in decentralized trade. If the asset is in short supply the price includes a liquidity premium. Traders have imperfect knowledge about future asset prices and estimate, in real-time, an econometric forecasting model. A permanent decrease in the supply of assets, or an increase in collateral requirements, can lead to over-shooting of the price. When price includes a liquidity premium there can be recurrent bubbles and crashes. Liquidity and adaptive learning play key roles in fitting the empirical distribution of price–dividend ratios.

Suggested Citation

  • Branch, William A., 2016. "Imperfect knowledge, liquidity and bubbles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 17-42.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:62:y:2016:i:c:p:17-42
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2015.11.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188915001931
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jedc.2015.11.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2012. "The Aggregate Demand for Treasury Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 233-267.
    2. Ricardo Lagos & Randall Wright, 2005. "A Unified Framework for Monetary Theory and Policy Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 463-484, June.
    3. Gustavo Grullon & Roni Michaely, 2002. "Dividends, Share Repurchases, and the Substitution Hypothesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1649-1684, August.
    4. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2000. "The Equity Share in New Issues and Aggregate Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 2219-2257, October.
    5. Preston, Bruce, 2006. "Adaptive learning, forecast-based instrument rules and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 507-535, April.
    6. Dimitri Vayanos & Pierre‐Olivier Weill, 2008. "A Search‐Based Theory of the On‐the‐Run Phenomenon," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1361-1398, June.
    7. Cho, In-Koo & Kasa, Kenneth, 2008. "Learning Dynamics And Endogenous Currency Crises," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(2), pages 257-285, April.
    8. Lagos, Ricardo & Wright, Randall, 2003. "Dynamics, cycles, and sunspot equilibria in 'genuinely dynamic, fundamentally disaggregative' models of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 156-171, April.
    9. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2008. "An Equilibrium Model of "Global Imbalances" and Low Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 358-393, March.
    10. Thomas J. Sargent & Noah Williams, 2005. "Impacts of Priors on Convergence and Escapes from Nash Inflation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 360-391, April.
    11. Branch, William A. & Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas & Rocheteau, Guillaume, 2016. "Financial frictions, the housing market, and unemployment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 101-135.
    12. Chao Gu & Fabrizio Mattesini & Cyril Monnet & Randall Wright, 2013. "Endogenous Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(5), pages 940-965.
    13. Adam, Klaus & Marcet, Albert, 2011. "Internal rationality, imperfect market knowledge and asset prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1224-1252, May.
    14. Darrell Duffie, 2012. "Over-The-Counter Markets," Introductory Chapters, in: Dark Markets: Asset Pricing and Information Transmission in Over-the-Counter Markets, Princeton University Press.
    15. Pierre-Olivier Weill, 2007. "Leaning Against the Wind," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(4), pages 1329-1354.
    16. Yiting Li & Guillaume Rocheteau & Pierre-Olivier Weill, 2012. "Liquidity and the Threat of Fraudulent Assets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(5), pages 000.
    17. Klaus Adam & Albert Marcet & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2016. "Stock Market Volatility and Learning," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(1), pages 33-82, February.
    18. Hommes, Cars & Zhu, Mei, 2014. "Behavioral learning equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 778-814.
    19. Chao He & Randall Wright & Yu Zhu, 2015. "Housing and Liquidity," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(3), pages 435-455, July.
    20. Rocheteau, Guillaume & Wright, Randall, 2013. "Liquidity and asset-market dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 275-294.
    21. Vayanos, Dimitri & Wang, Jiang, 2012. "Market liquidity - theory and empirical evidence," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119044, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    22. Dick-Nielsen, Jens & Feldhütter, Peter & Lando, David, 2012. "Corporate bond liquidity before and after the onset of the subprime crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(3), pages 471-492.
    23. Lagos, Ricardo, 2010. "Asset prices and liquidity in an exchange economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(8), pages 913-930, November.
    24. Dimitri Vayanos & Jiang Wang, 2012. "Liquidity and Asset Returns Under Asymmetric Information and Imperfect Competition," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(5), pages 1339-1365.
    25. Branch, William A. & Evans, George W., 2006. "A simple recursive forecasting model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 158-166, May.
    26. William A. Branch & George W. Evans, 2011. "Learning about Risk and Return: A Simple Model of Bubbles and Crashes," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 159-191, July.
    27. Colander,David (ed.), 2006. "Post Walrasian Macroeconomics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521865487, November.
    28. Pierre-Olivier Weill & Bruno Biais, 2009. "Liquidity shocks and order book dynamics," 2009 Meeting Papers 89, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    29. Nosal, Ed & Rocheteau, Guillaume, 2011. "Money, Payments, and Liquidity," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262016281, December.
    30. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Stefan Nagel & Dmitry Orlov, 2014. "Sizing Up Repo," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2381-2417, December.
    31. William A. Branch & George W. Evans, 2010. "Asset Return Dynamics and Learning," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(4), pages 1651-1680, April.
    32. Weill, Pierre-Olivier, 2008. "Liquidity premia in dynamic bargaining markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 66-96, May.
    33. Guillaume Rocheteau & Randall Wright, 2005. "Money in Search Equilibrium, in Competitive Equilibrium, and in Competitive Search Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(1), pages 175-202, January.
    34. Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1995. "Local Convergence of Recursive Learning to Steady States and Cycles in Stochastic Nonlinear Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(1), pages 195-206, January.
    35. Bruce McGough, 2006. "Shocking Escapes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(511), pages 507-528, April.
    36. In-Koo Cho & Noah Williams & Thomas J. Sargent, 2002. "Escaping Nash Inflation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 69(1), pages 1-40.
    37. Lagos, Ricardo & Rocheteau, Guillaume, 2008. "Money and capital as competing media of exchange," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 247-258, September.
    38. Morten Balling & David T. Llewellyn & Athanasios Orphanides & Luc Coene & Andy Haldane & Richard Davies & Dramane Coulibaly & Hubert Kempf & Nicola Brink & Michael Kock & Amund Holmsen & Øistein Røisl, 2012. "New Paradigms in Monetary Theory and Policy?," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 2012/1 edited by Morten Balling & David T. Llewellyn, May.
    39. Ricardo Lagos & Guillaume Rocheteau, 2009. "Liquidity in Asset Markets With Search Frictions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(2), pages 403-426, March.
    40. Athanasios Geromichalos & Juan M Licari & Jose Suarez-Lledo, 2007. "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(4), pages 761-779, October.
    41. Mr. Manmohan Singh, 2011. "Velocity of Pledged Collateral: Analysis and Implications," IMF Working Papers 2011/256, International Monetary Fund.
    42. Sargent, Thomas J., 1993. "Bounded Rationality in Macroeconomics: The Arne Ryde Memorial Lectures," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288695, Decembrie.
    43. Benjamin Lester & Andrew Postlewaite & Randall Wright, 2012. "Information, Liquidity, Asset Prices, and Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(3), pages 1209-1238.
    44. Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1993. "Temporary general equilibrium theory," Handbook of Mathematical Economics, in: K. J. Arrow & M.D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Mathematical Economics, edition 4, volume 2, chapter 19, pages 879-922, Elsevier.
    45. Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November.
    46. Branch, William A. & McGough, Bruce, 2005. "Consistent expectations and misspecification in stochastic non-linear economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 659-676, April.
    47. Colander,David (ed.), 2006. "Post Walrasian Macroeconomics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521684200, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bernales, Alejandro & Chen, Louisa & Valenzuela, Marcela, 2017. "Learning and forecasts about option returns through the volatility risk premium," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 312-330.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rocheteau, Guillaume & Wright, Randall, 2013. "Liquidity and asset-market dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 275-294.
    2. Athanasios Geromichalos & Lucas Herrenbrueck & Sukjoon Lee, 2023. "The Strategic Determination of the Supply of Liquid Assets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 1-36, July.
    3. Rocheteau, Guillaume & Rodriguez-Lopez, Antonio, 2014. "Liquidity provision, interest rates, and unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 80-101.
    4. Lukas Altermatt & Kohei Iwasaki & Randall Wright, 2023. "General Equilibrium with Multiple Liquid Assets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 267-291, December.
    5. Branch, William A. & Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas & Rocheteau, Guillaume, 2016. "Financial frictions, the housing market, and unemployment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 101-135.
    6. Athanasios Geromichalos & Lucas Herrenbrueck & Sukjoon Lee, 2023. "The Strategic Determination of the Supply of Liquid Assets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 1-36, July.
    7. Williamson, Stephen & Wright, Randall, 2010. "New Monetarist Economics: Models," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 2, pages 25-96, Elsevier.
    8. Huber, Samuel & Kim, Jaehong, 2017. "On the optimal quantity of liquid bonds," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 184-200.
    9. Athanasios Geromichalos & Kuk Mo Jung, 2019. "Monetary policy and efficiency in over-the-counter financial trade," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1699-1754, November.
    10. Rocheteau, Guillaume & Wright, Randall & Xiaolin Xiao, Sylvia, 2018. "Open market operations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 114-128.
    11. Geromichalos, Athanasios & Jung, Kuk Mo & Lee, Seungduck & Carlos, Dillon, 2021. "A model of endogenous direct and indirect asset liquidity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    12. Stephen D. Williamson & Randall Wright, 2010. "New monetarist economics: methods," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 92(May), pages 265-302.
    13. Guillaume Rocheteau & Pierre‐Olivier Weill, 2011. "Liquidity in Frictional Asset Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(s2), pages 261-282, October.
    14. Ricardo Lagos & Shengxing Zhang, 2020. "Turnover Liquidity and the Transmission of Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(6), pages 1635-1672, June.
    15. Athanasios Geromichalos & Jiwon Lee & Seungduck Lee & Keita Oikawa, 2016. "Over-the-counter trade and the value of assets as collateral," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 62(3), pages 443-475, August.
    16. Guillaume Rocheteau & Randall Wright & Cathy Zhang, 2018. "Corporate Finance and Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(4-5), pages 1147-1186, April.
    17. Guillaume Rocheteau & Tai-Wei Hu & Lucie Lebeau & Younghwan In, 2021. "Gradual Bargaining in Decentralized Asset Markets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 42, pages 72-109, October.
    18. Choi, Michael & Rocheteau, Guillaume, 2022. "Money mining and price dynamics: The case of divisible currencies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    19. Geromichalos, Athanasios & Herrenbrueck, Lucas, 2016. "The Strategic Determination of the Supply of Liquid Assets," MPRA Paper 71454, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Berentsen, Aleksander & Huber, Samuel & Marchesiani, Alessandro, 2016. "The societal benefit of a financial transaction tax," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 303-323.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset pricing; Adaptive learning; Bubbles; Liquidity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:62:y:2016:i:c:p:17-42. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.