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Endogenous credit cycles

Author

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  • Chao Gu
  • Randall Wright

Abstract

We study models of credit with limited commitment, which implies endogenous borrowing constraints. We show that there are multiple stationary equilibria, as well as nonstationary equilibria, including some that display deterministic cyclic and chaotic dynamics. There are also stochastic (sunspot) equilibria, in which credit conditions change randomly over time, even though fundamentals are deterministic and stationary. We show this can occur when the terms of trade are determined by Walrasian pricing or by Nash bargaining. The results illustrate how it is possible to generate equilibria with credit cycles (crunches, freezes, crises) in theory, and as recently observed in actual economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Chao Gu & Randall Wright, 2011. "Endogenous credit cycles," Working Papers 689, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmwp:689
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Berentsen, Aleksander & Huber, Samuel & Marchesiani, Alessandro, 2016. "The societal benefit of a financial transaction tax," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 303-323.
    2. Yi Wen & Xiaochuan Xing & Patrick Pintus, 2016. "Interest Rate Dynamics, Variable-Rate Loans, and the Business Cycle," 2016 Meeting Papers 293, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Randall Wright & Cathy Zhang & Guillaume Rocheteau, 2016. "Corporate Finance and Monetary Policy," 2016 Meeting Papers 97, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Rocheteau, Guillaume & Wright, Randall, 2013. "Liquidity and asset-market dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 275-294.
    5. Jianjun Miao & Pengfei Wang & Lifang Xu, 2016. "Stock market bubbles and unemployment," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 61(2), pages 273-307, February.
    6. repec:eee:dyncon:v:79:y:2017:i:c:p:184-200 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Zachary Bethune & Tai-Wei Hu & Guillaume Rocheteau, 2018. "Optimal Credit Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 27, pages 231-245, January.
    8. Costas Azariadis & Leo Kaas & Yi Wen, 2016. "Self-Fulfilling Credit Cycles," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 83(4), pages 1364-1405.
    9. Daniel Sanches, 2016. "On the Inherent Instability of Private Money," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 20, pages 198-214, April.
    10. Roger E.A. Farmer & Carine Nourry & Alain Venditti, 2012. "The Inefficient Markets Hypothesis: Why Financial Markets Do Not Work Well in the Real World," NBER Working Papers 18647, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Jess Benhabib & Jianjun Miao & Pengfei Wang, 2016. "Chaotic banking crises and regulations," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 61(2), pages 393-422, February.
    12. Huber, Samuel & Kim, Jaehong, 2017. "On the optimal quantity of liquid bonds," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 184-200.
    13. repec:fip:fedlrv:00094 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Lotz, Sébastien & Zhang, Cathy, 2016. "Money and credit as means of payment: A new monetarist approach," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 68-100.
    15. Chao He & Randall Wright & Yu Zhu, 2015. "Housing and Liquidity," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(3), pages 435-455, July.
    16. Zachary Bethune & Guillaume Rocheteau & Peter Rupert, 2015. "Aggregate Unemployment and Household Unsecured Debt," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(1), pages 77-100, January.
    17. Branch, William A., 2016. "Imperfect knowledge, liquidity and bubbles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 17-42.
    18. Francesca Carapella, 2017. "Credit markets, Limited commitment and Optimal monetary policy," 2017 Meeting Papers 1523, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Wei Cui & Leo Kaas, 2017. "Default Cycles," Discussion Papers 1716, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    20. Branch, William & McGough, Bruce, 2016. "Heterogeneous beliefs and trading inefficiencies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 786-818.
    21. Meradj Mortezapouraghdam, 2016. "Three Essays on the Role of Frictions in the Economy," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/293qice3lj8, Sciences Po.
    22. Bloise, Gaetano & Citanna, Alessandro, 2015. "Uniqueness of competitive equilibrium with solvency constraints under gross-substitution," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 287-295.
    23. P. A. Pintus & Y. Wen & X. Xing, 2016. "The Inverted Leading Indicator Property and Redistribution Effect of the Interest Rate," Working papers 616, Banque de France.
    24. Vincent Maurin, 2016. "Liquidity Fluctuations in Over the Counter Markets," 2016 Meeting Papers 218, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    25. repec:eee:reecon:v:71:y:2017:i:3:p:373-383 is not listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment

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