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A simple recursive forecasting model

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  • Branch, William A.
  • Evans, George W.

Abstract

We compare the performance of alternative recursive forecasting models. A simple constant gain algorithm, used widely in the learning literature, both forecasts well out of sample and also provides the best fit to the Survey of Professional Forecasters.
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Suggested Citation

  • Branch, William A. & Evans, George W., 2006. "A simple recursive forecasting model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 158-166, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:91:y:2006:i:2:p:158-166
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    2. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2005. "Policy Interaction, Expectations and the Liquidity Trap," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 303-323, April.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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