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Learning benevolent leadership in a heterogenous agents economy

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  • Arifovic, Jasmina
  • Dawid, Herbert
  • Deissenberg, Christophe
  • Kostyshyna, Olena

Abstract

This paper studies the potential commitment value of cheap talk announcements in an agent-based dynamic extension of the Kydland-Prescott model. In every period, the policy maker makes a non-binding inflation announcement before setting the actual inflation rate. It updates its decisions using individual evolutionary learning. The private agents can choose between two different forecasting strategies: They can either set their forecast equal to the announcement or use an adaptive learning scheme to (potentially) forecast the true inflation. They switch between these two strategies as a function of information about the associated payoffs they obtain through word-of-mouth, choosing always the currently most favorable one. While all agents using the first strategy make the same forecast, those using the second strategy may generate different individual forecasts. In spite of the complexity of the environment, the boundedly rational policy maker learns to sustain a situation with a positive but fluctuating fraction of believers. This outcome is Pareto superior to the outcome predicted by standard theory. Interestingly enough, the actions taken by the policy maker undergo marked qualitative changes as a function of the prevailing heterogeneity among and learning characteristics of the private agents.

Suggested Citation

  • Arifovic, Jasmina & Dawid, Herbert & Deissenberg, Christophe & Kostyshyna, Olena, 2010. "Learning benevolent leadership in a heterogenous agents economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1768-1790, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:34:y:2010:i:9:p:1768-1790
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    Cited by:

    1. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2017. "Macroeconomic Policy in DSGE and Agent-Based Models Redux: New Developments and Challenges Ahead," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 20(1), pages 1-1.
    2. Silveira, Jaylson Jair da & Lima, Gilberto Tadeu, 2015. "Conquering Credibility for Monetary Policy under Sticky Confidence," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 69(2), June.
    3. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2012. "Macroeconomic Policy in DSGE and Agent-Based Models," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 67-116.
    4. repec:eee:gamebe:v:107:y:2018:i:c:p:203-219 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. John Duffy & Frank Heinemann, 2016. "Central Bank Reputation, Cheap Talk and Transparency as Substitutes for Commitment: Experimental Evidence," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2016-053, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    6. repec:wly:jmoncb:v:49:y:2017:i:8:p:1673-1713 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/53r60a8s3kup1vc9l5643ehjk is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Mauro Napoletano & Jean-Luc Gaffard & Zakaria Babutsidze, 2012. "Agent Based Models A New Tool for Economic and Policy Analysis: A New Tool for Economic and Policy Analysis," Sciences Po publications 3, Sciences Po.
    9. Mauro Napoletano & Jean-Luc Gaffard & Zakaria Babutsidze, 2012. "Agent Based Models A New Tool for Economic and Policy Analysis," Working Papers hal-01070338, HAL.
    10. Mauro Napoletano, 2017. "A Short Walk on the Wild Side: Agent-Based Models and their Implications for Macroeconomic Analysis," GREDEG Working Papers 2017-40, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), University of Nice Sophia Antipolis.
    11. Kinda Hachem & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2017. "Inflation Announcements and Social Dynamics," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(8), pages 1673-1713, December.
    12. repec:eee:finlet:v:24:y:2018:i:c:p:278-288 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Stanislao Gualdi & Marco Tarzia & Francesco Zamponi, 2018. "Optimal inflation target: insights from an agent-based model," Post-Print hal-01768441, HAL.
    14. repec:zbw:ifweej:201815 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Jasmina ARIFOVIC & Murat YILDIZOGLU, 2014. "Learning the Ramsey outcome in a Kydland & Prescott economy," Cahiers du GREThA 2014-06, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée.

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