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Inflation expectations and macroeconomic dynamics: The case of rational versus extrapolative expectations

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  • Lines, Marji
  • Westerhoff, Frank

Abstract

The motivation of this paper is to understand the effects of coupling a macroeconomic model of inflation rate dynamics, relying on an aggregate expectation, to a heterogeneous expectations framework. A standard model composed of Okun's law, an expectations-augmented Phillips curve and an aggregate demand relation is extended to allow agents to select between trend-following and rational expectations to predict the future inflation rate. Using a mixture of analytical and numerical tools we investigate the model's dynamics and discuss the conditions under which the extended model leads to endogenous fluctuations in macroeconomic variables. Some preliminary results are offered for the case in which a Taylor-like monetary policy rule is included in the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Lines, Marji & Westerhoff, Frank, 2010. "Inflation expectations and macroeconomic dynamics: The case of rational versus extrapolative expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 246-257, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:34:y:2010:i:2:p:246-257
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Westerhoff, Frank & Franke, Reiner, 2012. "Agent-based models for economic policy design: Two illustrative examples," BERG Working Paper Series 88, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    2. Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2015. "Managing rational routes to randomness," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 157-173.
    3. Michael Wegener & Frank Westerhoff, 2012. "Evolutionary competition between prediction rules and the emergence of business cycles within Metzler’s inventory model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 251-273, April.
    4. Gerunov, Anton, 2014. "Критичен Преглед На Основните Подходи За Моделиране На Икономическите Очаквания
      [A Critical Review of Major Approaches for Modeling Economic Expectations]
      ," MPRA Paper 68797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Alfarano Simone & Milakovic Mishael, 2012. "Identification of Interaction Effects in Survey Expectations: A Cautionary Note," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(4), pages 1-23, October.
    6. Hommes, Cars, 2011. "The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: Some evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-24, January.
    7. Heemeijer Peter & Hommes Cars & Sonnemans Joep & Tuinstra Jan, 2012. "An Experimental Study on Expectations and Learning in Overlapping Generations Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(4), pages 1-49, October.
    8. repec:ctc:serie1:def7 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Sordi, Serena & Vercelli, Alessandro, 2012. "Heterogeneous expectations and strong uncertainty in a Minskyian model of financial fluctuations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 544-557.
    10. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2011. "The dynamic behaviour of asset prices in disequilibrium: a survey," International Journal of Behavioural Accounting and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(2), pages 101-139.
    11. He, Xue-Zhong & Li, Kai & Wang, Chuncheng, 2016. "Volatility clustering: A nonlinear theoretical approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 274-297.
    12. Agliari, Anna & Hommes, Cars H. & Pecora, Nicolò, 2016. "Path dependent coordination of expectations in asset pricing experiments: A behavioral explanation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 15-28.
    13. Foroni, Ilaria & Agliari, Anna, 2011. "Complex dynamics associated with the appearance/disappearance of invariant closed curves," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 81(8), pages 1640-1655.
    14. Wenli Cheng & Simon D. Angus, 2012. "The Cantillon Effect of Money Injection through Deficit Spending," Monash Economics Working Papers 12-12, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    15. Tiziana Assenza & William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2017. "Animal Spirits, Heterogeneous Expectations, And The Amplification And Duration Of Crises," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(1), pages 542-564, January.
    16. Viergutz, Tim & Schulze-Ehlers, Birgit, 2016. "The Spatiotemporal Interrelatedness of Farmers’ Switching Decisions," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, 2016, Boston, Massachusetts 235882, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    17. Jaylson Jair da Silveira & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2014. "Heterogeneity in Inflation Expectations and Macroeconomic Stability under Satisficing Learning," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2014_28, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    18. Lines Marji & Westerhoff Frank, 2012. "Effects of Inflation Expectations on Macroeconomic Dynamics: Extrapolative Versus Regressive Expectations," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, pages 1-30.
    19. Tiziana Assenza & William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2013. "Animal Spirits, Heterogeneous Expectations and the Emergence of Booms and Busts," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-205/II, Tinbergen Institute.
    20. Choi, Yoonseok & Kim, Sunghyun, 2016. "Testing an alternative price-setting behavior in the new Keynesian Phillips curve: Extrapolative price-setting mechanism," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 253-265.

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