On Learning Equilibria
We investigate an inflationary overlapping generations model where households predict future inflation rates by running a least squares regression of inflation rates or prices on their past levels. We critically examine the results on learning equilibria obtained by Bullard (1994) and SchÃ¶nhofer (1999) in this framework. They show that an increase in the money growth rate may lead to limit cycles and endogenous business cycles. We suggest an alternative estimation procedure, that starts from the same perceived law of motion, but is more sensible from an econometrician's point of view. We prove that for this estimation procedure there is global convergence on the monetary steady for a large set of savings functions. We also study, in a heterogeneou agents framework, evolutionary competition between the two estimation procedures, where the fraction of the population using a certain estimation procedure is determined by its past average quadratic forecast error. Interestingly, the more sensible estimation procedure is not always able to drive out the other estimation procedure, and endogenous business cycles may still be observed in this heterogeneous world.
|Date of creation:||2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Dept. of Economics and Econometrics, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Roetersstraat 11, NL - 1018 WB Amsterdam, The Netherlands|
Phone: + 31 20 525 52 58
Fax: + 31 20 525 52 83
Web page: http://www.fee.uva.nl/cendef/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Brock, W.A., 1995.
"A Rational Route to Randomness,"
9530, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Tuinstra, J. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2003.
"On Learning Equilibria,"
CeNDEF Working Papers
03-07, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Florian Wagener & Jan Tuinstra, 2004. "On Learning Equilibria," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 217, Society for Computational Economics.
- Tuinstra, J. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2000. "On learning equilibria," CeNDEF Working Papers 00-12, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Grandmont Jean-michel, 1983.
"On endogenous competitive business cycles,"
CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange)
- Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August.
- Jan Tuinstra, 2001.
"Beliefs Equilbria in an Overlapping Generations Model,"
CeNDEF Workshop Papers, January 2001
4B.4, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Tuinstra, Jan, 2003. "Beliefs equilibria in an overlapping generations model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 145-164, February.
- repec:cup:macdyn:v:2:y:1998:i:3:p:287-321 is not listed on IDEAS
- Jan Wenzelburger, 2000. "Convergence of Adaptive Learning Models of Pure Exchange," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1070, Econometric Society.
- Schonhofer, Martin, 1999. "Chaotic Learning Equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 1-20, November.
- Duffy John, 1994. "On Learning and the Nonuniqueness of Equilibrium in an Overlapping Generations Model with Fiat Money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 541-553, December.
- Bullard James, 1994.
Journal of Economic Theory,
Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 468-485, December.
- Sonnenschein, Hugo, 1973. "Do Walras' identity and continuity characterize the class of community excess demand functions?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 345-354, August.
- Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1986. "Adaptive Behavior and Economic Theory," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(4), pages S401-26, October.
- De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990.
"Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-38, August.
- De Long, J. Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H. & Waldmann, Robert J., 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Scholarly Articles 3725552, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, . "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _124, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
- Hommes, Cars & Sorger, Gerhard, 1998. "Consistent Expectations Equilibria," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(03), pages 287-321, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ams:ndfwpp:03-07. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Cees C.G. Diks)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.