IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Consistent Expectations Equilibria and Complex Dynamics in Renewable Resource Markets

  • Hommes, C.H.

    ()

    (Universiteit van Amsterdam)

  • Rosser, B.J., Jr.

Price fluctuations under adaptive learning in renewable resource markets such as fisheries are examined. Optimal fishery management with logistic fish population growth implies a backward-bending, discounted supply curve for bioeconomic equilibrium sustained yield. Higher discount rates bend supply backwards more to generate multiple steady state rational expectations equilibria. Under bounded rationality adaptive learning of a linear forecasting rule generates steady state, 2-cycle as well as chaotic consistent expectations equilibria (CEE), which are self-fulfilling in sample average and autocorrelations. The possibility of "learning to believe in chaos" is robust and even enhanced by dynamic noise.

To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

Paper provided by Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance in its series CeNDEF Working Papers with number 00-05.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ams:ndfwpp:00-05
Contact details of provider: Postal: Dept. of Economics and Econometrics, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Roetersstraat 11, NL - 1018 WB Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Phone: + 31 20 525 52 58
Fax: + 31 20 525 52 83
Web page: http://www.fee.uva.nl/cendef/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Chiarella, Carl, 1988. "The cobweb model: Its instability and the onset of chaos," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 377-384, October.
  2. Bullard James, 1994. "Learning Equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 468-485, December.
  3. Jean-Michel Grandmont, 1997. "Expectations Formation and Stability of Large Socioeconomic Systems," Working Papers 97-27, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  4. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August.
  5. Chavas, Jean-Paul & Holt, Matthew T., 1995. "Nonlinear Dynamics And Economic Instability: The Optimal Management Of A Biological Population," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 20(02), December.
  6. Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "On the consistency of backward-looking expectations: The case of the cobweb," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 333-362, January.
  7. Sorger, Gerhard, 1998. "Imperfect foresight and chaos: an example of a self-fulfilling mistake," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 363-383, January.
  8. Bullard, James & Duffy, John, 2001. "Learning And Excess Volatility," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(02), pages 272-302, April.
  9. Schonhofer, Martin, 1999. "Chaotic Learning Equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 1-20, November.
  10. Mitra, Tapan, 1998. "On the relationship between discounting and complicated behavior in dynamic optimization models," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 421-434, January.
  11. Sargent, Thomas J., 1993. "Bounded Rationality in Macroeconomics: The Arne Ryde Memorial Lectures," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288695, March.
  12. H. Scott Gordon, 1954. "The Economic Theory of a Common-Property Resource: The Fishery," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62, pages 124.
  13. Nishimura, Kazuo & Yano, Makoto, 1996. "On the Least Upper Bound of Discount Factors That Are Compatible with Optimal Period-Three Cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 306-333, May.
  14. Hommes, Cars & Sorger, Gerhard, 1998. "Consistent Expectations Equilibria," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(03), pages 287-321, September.
  15. J. Barkley Rosser, Jr., 1995. "Systemic Crises in Hierarchical Ecological Economies," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 71(2), pages 163-172.
  16. Radunskaya, Amy, 1994. "Comparing Random and Deterministic Time Series," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(5), pages 765-76, August.
  17. Schonhofer, Martin, 2001. "Can agents learn their way out of chaos?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 71-83, January.
  18. Montrucchio, Luigi & Sorger, Gerhard, 1996. "Topological entropy of policy functions in concave dynamic optimization models," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 181-194.
  19. Arifovic, Jasmina, 1996. "The Behavior of the Exchange Rate in the Genetic Algorithm and Experimental Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 510-41, June.
  20. Hommes, Cars H., 1994. "Dynamics of the cobweb model with adaptive expectations and nonlinear supply and demand," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 315-335, August.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ams:ndfwpp:00-05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Cees C.G. Diks)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.