Consistent Expectations Equilibria and Complex Dynamics in Renewable Resource Markets
Price fluctuations under adaptive learning in renewable resource markets such as fisheries are examined. Optimal fishery management with logistic fish population growth implies a backward-bending, discounted supply curve for bioeconomic equilibrium sustained yield. Higher discount rates bend supply backwards more to generate multiple steady state rational expectations equilibria. Under bounded rationality adaptive learning of a linear forecasting rule generates steady state, 2-cycle as well as chaotic consistent expectations equilibria (CEE), which are self-fulfilling in sample average and autocorrelations. The possibility of "learning to believe in chaos" is robust and even enhanced by dynamic noise.
|Date of creation:||2000|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Dept. of Economics and Econometrics, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Roetersstraat 11, NL - 1018 WB Amsterdam, The Netherlands|
Phone: + 31 20 525 52 58
Fax: + 31 20 525 52 83
Web page: http://www.fee.uva.nl/cendef/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sorger, Gerhard, 1998. "Imperfect foresight and chaos: an example of a self-fulfilling mistake," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 363-383, January.
- Radunskaya, Amy, 1994. "Comparing Random and Deterministic Time Series," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 4(5), pages 765-776, August.
- Hommes, Cars H., 1994. "Dynamics of the cobweb model with adaptive expectations and nonlinear supply and demand," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 315-335, August.
- Arifovic, Jasmina, 1996. "The Behavior of the Exchange Rate in the Genetic Algorithm and Experimental Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 510-541, June.
- GRANDMONT, Jean-Michel, 1997.
"Expectations formation and stability of large socioeconomic systems,"
CORE Discussion Papers
1997088, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Jean-Michel Grandmont, 1998. "Expectations Formation and Stability of Large Socioeconomic Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(4), pages 741-782, July.
- Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1994. "Expectations formation and stability of large socioeconomic systems," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9424, CEPREMAP.
- Jean-Michel Grandmont, 1997. "Expectations Formation and Stability of Large Socioeconomic Systems," Working Papers 97-27, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
- Bullard James, 1994.
Journal of Economic Theory,
Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 468-485, December.
- Chavas, Jean-Paul & Holt, Matthew T., 1995. "Nonlinear Dynamics And Economic Instability: The Optimal Management Of A Biological Population," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 20(02), pages -, December.
- Schonhofer, Martin, 2001. "Can agents learn their way out of chaos?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 71-83, January.
- J. Barkley Rosser, Jr., 1995. "Systemic Crises in Hierarchical Ecological Economies," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 71(2), pages 163-172.
- H. Scott Gordon, 1954. "The Economic Theory of a Common-Property Resource: The Fishery," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62, pages 124-124.
- Hommes, Cars & Sorger, Gerhard, 1998. "Consistent Expectations Equilibria," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(03), pages 287-321, September.
- Chiarella, Carl, 1988. "The cobweb model: Its instability and the onset of chaos," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 377-384, October.
- Mitra, Tapan, 1998. "On the relationship between discounting and complicated behavior in dynamic optimization models," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 421-434, January.
- Nishimura, Kazuo & Yano, Makoto, 1996. "On the Least Upper Bound of Discount Factors That Are Compatible with Optimal Period-Three Cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 306-333, May.
- James Bullard & John Duffy, 1999.
"Learning and Excess Volatility,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 1999
224, Society for Computational Economics.
- Sargent, Thomas J., 1993. "Bounded Rationality in Macroeconomics: The Arne Ryde Memorial Lectures," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288695, December.
- Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August.
- Montrucchio, Luigi & Sorger, Gerhard, 1996. "Topological entropy of policy functions in concave dynamic optimization models," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 181-194.
- Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "On the consistency of backward-looking expectations: The case of the cobweb," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 333-362, January.
- Schonhofer, Martin, 1999. "Chaotic Learning Equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 1-20, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ams:ndfwpp:00-05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Cees C.G. Diks)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.