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Consistent Expectations Equilibria and Complex Dynamics in Renewable Resource Markets

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  • Hommes, C.H.

    (Universiteit van Amsterdam)

  • Rosser, B.J., Jr.

Abstract

Price fluctuations under adaptive learning in renewable resource markets such as fisheries are examined. Optimal fishery management with logistic fish population growth implies a backward-bending, discounted supply curve for bioeconomic equilibrium sustained yield. Higher discount rates bend supply backwards more to generate multiple steady state rational expectations equilibria. Under bounded rationality adaptive learning of a linear forecasting rule generates steady state, 2-cycle as well as chaotic consistent expectations equilibria (CEE), which are self-fulfilling in sample average and autocorrelations. The possibility of "learning to believe in chaos" is robust and even enhanced by dynamic noise.

Suggested Citation

  • Hommes, C.H. & Rosser, B.J., Jr., 2000. "Consistent Expectations Equilibria and Complex Dynamics in Renewable Resource Markets," CeNDEF Working Papers 00-05, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:ams:ndfwpp:00-05
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