Consistent Expectations Equilibria And Complex Dynamics In Renewable Resource Markets
Price fluctuations under adaptive learning in renewable resourcemarkets such as fisheries are examined. Optimal fisherymanagement with logistic fish pOpUlation growth implies a backward-bending, discounted supply curve for bioeconomicequilibrium sustained yield. Higher discount rates bend supplybackwards more to generate multiple steady state rationalexpectations equilibria. Under bounded rationality adaptive learningof a linear forecasting rule generates steady state, 2-cycle as weIl as chaotic consistent expectations equilibria (CEE),which are self-fulfilling in sample average andautocorrelations. The possibility of "learning to believe in chaos"is robust and even enhanced by dynamic noise.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
Volume (Year): 5 (2001)
Issue (Month): 02 (April)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Cambridge University Press, UPH, Shaftesbury Road, Cambridge CB2 8BS UK|
Web page: http://journals.cambridge.org/jid_MDY
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bullard James, 1994.
Journal of Economic Theory,
Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 468-485, December.
- James B. Bullard, 1991. "Learning equilibria," Working Papers 1991-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Radunskaya, Amy, 1994. "Comparing Random and Deterministic Time Series," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 4(5), pages 765-776, August.
- Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "On the consistency of backward-looking expectations: The case of the cobweb," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 333-362, January.
- Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August.
- Chiarella, Carl, 1988. "The cobweb model: Its instability and the onset of chaos," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 377-384, October.
- J. Barkley Rosser, Jr., 1995. "Systemic Crises in Hierarchical Ecological Economies," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 71(2), pages 163-172.
- Schonhofer, Martin, 1999. "Chaotic Learning Equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 1-20, November.
- Nishimura, Kazuo & Yano, Makoto, 1996. "On the Least Upper Bound of Discount Factors That Are Compatible with Optimal Period-Three Cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 306-333, May.
- Bullard, James & Duffy, John, 2001. "Learning And Excess Volatility," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(02), pages 272-302, April.
- James B. Bullard & John Duffy, 1998. "Learning and excess volatility," Working Papers 1998-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- James Bullard & John Duffy, 1999. "Learning and Excess Volatility," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 224, Society for Computational Economics.
- Montrucchio, Luigi & Sorger, Gerhard, 1996. "Topological entropy of policy functions in concave dynamic optimization models," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 181-194.
- Jean-Michel Grandmont, 1998. "Expectations Formation and Stability of Large Socioeconomic Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(4), pages 741-782, July.
- Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1994. "Expectations formation and stability of large socioeconomic systems," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9424, CEPREMAP.
- GRANDMONT, Jean-Michel, 1997. "Expectations formation and stability of large socioeconomic systems," CORE Discussion Papers 1997088, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Jean-Michel Grandmont, 1997. "Expectations Formation and Stability of Large Socioeconomic Systems," Working Papers 97-27, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
- Hommes, Cars & Sorger, Gerhard, 1998. "Consistent Expectations Equilibria," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(03), pages 287-321, September.
- Mitra, Tapan, 1998. "On the relationship between discounting and complicated behavior in dynamic optimization models," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 421-434, January.
- Arifovic, Jasmina, 1996. "The Behavior of the Exchange Rate in the Genetic Algorithm and Experimental Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 510-541, June.
- Sorger, Gerhard, 1998. "Imperfect foresight and chaos: an example of a self-fulfilling mistake," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 363-383, January.
- H. Scott Gordon, 1954. "The Economic Theory of a Common-Property Resource: The Fishery," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62, pages 124-124.
- Chavas, Jean-Paul & Holt, Matthew T., 1995. "Nonlinear Dynamics And Economic Instability: The Optimal Management Of A Biological Population," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 20(02), December.
- Sargent, Thomas J., 1993. "Bounded Rationality in Macroeconomics: The Arne Ryde Memorial Lectures," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288695.
- Schonhofer, Martin, 2001. "Can agents learn their way out of chaos?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 71-83, January.
- Hommes, Cars H., 1994. "Dynamics of the cobweb model with adaptive expectations and nonlinear supply and demand," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 315-335, August. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:5:y:2001:i:02:p:180-203_01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Keith Waters)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.