A consistent route to randomness
Fully rational agents are allowed to optimize over expectations formation technologies in an environment where it is costly to collect and process information. It is shown in a general equilibrium framework that optimization over expectations by rational and forward-oriented agents can lead to endogenous instability. Specifically, we illustrate that resulting equilibria can be both chaotic and self-consistent with the distribution of agents' expected forecasting errors coinciding with the actual errors implied by the endogenous dynamic process. Moreover, we show that the equilibrium dynamics, while being purely deterministic, need not be distinguishable from stochastic dynamics to an outside rational observer.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J, 1988. "The Fate of Systems with "Adaptive" Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 168-72, May.
- repec:att:wimass:9530 is not listed on IDEAS
- Judd, Kenneth L., 1985. "The law of large numbers with a continuum of IID random variables," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 19-25, February.
- Schonhofer, Martin, 1999. "Chaotic Learning Equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 1-20, November.
- GRANDMONT, Jean-Michel, 1997.
"Expectations formation and stability of large socioeconomic systems,"
CORE Discussion Papers
1997088, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Jean-Michel Grandmont, 1998. "Expectations Formation and Stability of Large Socioeconomic Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(4), pages 741-782, July.
- Jean-Michel Grandmont, 1997. "Expectations Formation and Stability of Large Socioeconomic Systems," Working Papers 97-27, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
- Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1994. "Expectations formation and stability of large socioeconomic systems," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9424, CEPREMAP.
- repec:oup:restud:v:76:y:2009:i:1:p:223-251 is not listed on IDEAS
- repec:att:wimass:9624 is not listed on IDEAS
- Radunskaya, Amy, 1994. "Comparing Random and Deterministic Time Series," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(5), pages 765-76, August.
- William Brock & Pietro Dindo & Cars Hommes, 2006. "Adaptive rational equilibrium with forward looking agents," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 2(3-4), pages 241-278.
- Bullard James, 1994.
Journal of Economic Theory,
Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 468-485, December.
- Hommes, Cars & Sorger, Gerhard, 1998. "Consistent Expectations Equilibria," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(03), pages 287-321, September.
- Brock, William A. & de Fontnouvelle, Patrick, 2000.
"Expectational diversity in monetary economies,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 725-759, June.
- Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1995. "Local Convergence of Recursive Learning to Steady States and Cycles in Stochastic Nonlinear Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(1), pages 195-206, January.
- Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "On the consistency of backward-looking expectations: The case of the cobweb," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 333-362, January.
- Ricardo Reis, 2004.
135, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Discussion Papers in Economics..
- Laura Veldkamp & Christian Hellwig, 2006.
"Knowing What Others Know: Coordination Motives in Information Acquisition,"
06-14, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- Christian Hellwig & Laura Veldkamp, 2006. "Knowing what others Know: Coordination motives in information acquisition," 2006 Meeting Papers 361, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Hellwig, Christian & Veldkamp, Laura, 2007. "Knowing What Others Know: Coordination Motives in Information Acquisition," CEPR Discussion Papers 6506, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- repec:oup:restud:v:73:y:2006:i:3:p:793-821 is not listed on IDEAS
- Grandmont Jean-michel, 1983.
"On endogenous competitive business cycles,"
CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange)
- William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997.
"A Rational Route to Randomness,"
Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
- Ricardo Reis, 2005.
2005 Meeting Papers
290, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Kiminori Matsuyama, 1996.
"Growing Through Cycles,"
1203, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Branch, William A. & Evans, George W., 2006.
"Intrinsic heterogeneity in expectation formation,"
Journal of Economic Theory,
Elsevier, vol. 127(1), pages 264-295, March.
- George Evans & William Branch, 2003. "Intrinsic Heterogeneity in Expectation Formation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 312, Society for Computational Economics.
- Bill Branch & George W. Evans, 2003. "Intrinsic Heterogeneity in Expectation Formation," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2003-32, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 04 Oct 2004.
- Evans, George W & Ramey, Garey, 1992. "Expectation Calculation and Macroeconomic Dynamics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 207-24, March.
- Townsend, Robert M, 1983. "Forecasting the Forecasts of Others," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 546-88, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:145:y:2010:i:1:p:354-381. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.