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Ordinary Least Squares Learning And Nonlinearities In Macroeconomics

  • Orlando Gomes

The paper reviews the literature on adaptive learning in macroeconomic settings where the formation of expectations is particularly relevant. Special attention will be given to simple two-period overlapping generations models with a unique fixed point perfect foresight equilibrium; in this kind of scenario, eventual long-term periodic and a-periodic cycles are exclusively the result of the process of learning. The outcome that high rates of money growth have a potentially destabilizing effect generating periodic fluctuations and chaos is emphasized. The persistence of systematic forecast errors in a scenario where agents are supposed to act rationally is relevant in this context and it will be thoroughly discussed resorting to the notions of self-fulfilling mistakes, consistent expectations equilibria and beliefs equilibria. Copyright � 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Journal of Economic Surveys.

Volume (Year): 24 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (02)
Pages: 52-84

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jecsur:v:24:y:2010:i:1:p:52-84
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  1. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1996. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Working papers 9530r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  2. Jean-Michel Grandmont, 2008. "Nonlinear Difference Equations, Bifurcations and Chaos: An Introduction," Working Papers 2008_23, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  3. Xue-Zhong (Tony) He & Carl Chiarella, 2001. "Asset Price and Wealth Dynamics under Heterogeneous Expectations," CeNDEF Workshop Papers, January 2001 5A.2, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  4. Wenzelburger, Jan, 2006. "Learning in linear models with expectational leads," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(7-8), pages 854-884, November.
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  11. Domenico Colucci & Vicenzo Valori, 2000. "Expectations Of Learning Agents And Stability Of Perfect Foresight Equilibria In Discrete Time Dynamic Economic Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 218, Society for Computational Economics.
  12. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He, 2000. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model with a Market Maker," Research Paper Series 35, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  13. Bray, Margaret, 1982. "Learning, estimation, and the stability of rational expectations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 318-339, April.
  14. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He, 2000. "Stability of Competitive Equilibria with Heterogeneous Beliefs and Learning," Research Paper Series 37, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  15. Gaunersdorfer, Andrea, 2000. "Endogenous fluctuations in a simple asset pricing model with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 799-831, June.
  16. Chatterji, Shurojit & Chattopadhyay, Subir, 2000. "Global stability in spite of "local instability" with learning," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 155-165, March.
  17. Barucci, Emilio & Bischi, Gian Italo & Gardini, Laura, 1999. "Endogenous Fluctuations in a Bounded Rationality Economy: Learning Non-perfect Foresight Equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 243-253, July.
  18. Cellarier, Laurent, 2006. "Constant gain learning and business cycles," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 51-85, March.
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  21. repec:dgr:uvatin:2001013 is not listed on IDEAS
  22. Jan Tuinstra, 2001. "Beliefs Equilbria in an Overlapping Generations Model," CeNDEF Workshop Papers, January 2001 4B.4, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  23. B hm, Volker & Wenzelburger, Jan, 1999. "Expectations, Forecasting, And Perfect Foresight," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(02), pages 167-186, June.
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  30. Orlando Gomes, 2008. "Adaptive Learning and Complex Dynamics," Working Papers Series 1 ercwp2108, ISCTE-IUL, Business Research Unit (BRU-IUL).
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