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Ordinary Least Squares Learning And Nonlinearities In Macroeconomics

  • Orlando Gomes

The paper reviews the literature on adaptive learning in macroeconomic settings where the formation of expectations is particularly relevant. Special attention will be given to simple two-period overlapping generations models with a unique fixed point perfect foresight equilibrium; in this kind of scenario, eventual long-term periodic and a-periodic cycles are exclusively the result of the process of learning. The outcome that high rates of money growth have a potentially destabilizing effect generating periodic fluctuations and chaos is emphasized. The persistence of systematic forecast errors in a scenario where agents are supposed to act rationally is relevant in this context and it will be thoroughly discussed resorting to the notions of self-fulfilling mistakes, consistent expectations equilibria and beliefs equilibria. Copyright � 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Journal of Economic Surveys.

Volume (Year): 24 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (02)
Pages: 52-84

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jecsur:v:24:y:2010:i:1:p:52-84
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  1. Schonhofer, Martin, 1999. "Chaotic Learning Equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 1-20, November.
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  5. C. Chiarella & X-Z. He, 2001. "Asset price and wealth dynamics under heterogeneous expectations," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(5), pages 509-526.
  6. Cellarier, Laurent, 2006. "Constant gain learning and business cycles," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 51-85, March.
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  10. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1996. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Working papers 9530r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
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  13. Gaunersdorfer, Andrea, 2000. "Endogenous fluctuations in a simple asset pricing model with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 799-831, June.
  14. Gaunersdorfer, Andrea & Hommes, Cars H. & Wagener, Florian O.O., 2008. "Bifurcation routes to volatility clustering under evolutionary learning," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 27-47, July.
  15. Orlando Gomes, 2008. "Local Learning Dynamics," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(57), pages 1-15.
  16. Jean-Michel Grandmont, 2008. "Nonlinear Difference Equations, Bifurcation and Chaos : An Introduction”," Working Papers 2008-19, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
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  18. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong, 2003. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk, And Learning In A Simple Asset-Pricing Model With A Market Maker," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(04), pages 503-536, September.
  19. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August.
  20. Jan Tuinstra & Florian Wagener, 2007. "On learning equilibria," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 493-513, March.
  21. Schonhofer, Martin, 2001. "Can agents learn their way out of chaos?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 71-83, January.
  22. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
  23. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2002. "Evolutionary dynamics in markets with many trader types," CeNDEF Working Papers 02-10, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  24. Hommes, Cars & Sorger, Gerhard, 1998. "Consistent Expectations Equilibria," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(03), pages 287-321, September.
  25. Bray, Margaret, 1982. "Learning, estimation, and the stability of rational expectations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 318-339, April.
  26. Cars H. Hommes & J. Barkley Rosser, 2001. "Consistent Expectations Equilibria and Complex Dynamics in Renewable Resource Markets," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-013/1, Tinbergen Institute.
  27. B hm, Volker & Wenzelburger, Jan, 1999. "Expectations, Forecasting, And Perfect Foresight," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(02), pages 167-186, June.
  28. Sorger, Gerhard, 1998. "Imperfect foresight and chaos: an example of a self-fulfilling mistake," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 363-383, January.
  29. Chatterji, Shurojit & Chattopadhyay, Subir, 2000. "Global stability in spite of "local instability" with learning," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 155-165, March.
  30. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He, 2000. "Stability of Competitive Equilibria with Heterogeneous Beliefs and Learning," Research Paper Series 37, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  31. Orlando Gomes, 2008. "Adaptive Learning and Complex Dynamics," Working Papers Series 1 ercwp2108, ISCTE-IUL, Business Research Unit (BRU-IUL).
  32. Domenico Colucci & Vicenzo Valori, 2000. "Expectations Of Learning Agents And Stability Of Perfect Foresight Equilibria In Discrete Time Dynamic Economic Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 218, Society for Computational Economics.
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