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Beliefs Equilbria in an Overlapping Generations Model

Author

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  • Jan Tuinstra

    (CeNDEF, University of Amsterdam)

Abstract

We consider a standard two generations version of the overlapping generations model. Agents predict inflation rates on the basis of a perceived law of motion, which is estimated by running a linear regression on past inflation rates. We introduce the notion of Beliefs Equilibrium. At such an equilibrium i) the perceived law of motion is such that it fits the time series of inflation rates best, and ii) this time series of actual inflation rates is generated when agents use that perceived law of motion. We show that beliefs might converge, although inflation rates keep on fluctuating. These fluctuations are consistent with the limit belief.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Tuinstra, 2001. "Beliefs Equilbria in an Overlapping Generations Model," CeNDEF Workshop Papers, January 2001 4B.4, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:ams:cdws01:4b.4
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    2. Cellarier, Laurent L., 2008. "Least squares learning and business cycles," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 68(3-4), pages 553-564, December.
    3. Hommes, Cars & Zhu, Mei, 2014. "Behavioral learning equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 778-814.
    4. Cavalli, F. & Chen, H.-J. & Li, M.-C. & Naimzada, A. & Pecora, N., 2023. "Heterogeneous expectations and equilibria selection in an evolutionary overlapping generations model," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    5. Colucci, Domenico & Valori, Vincenzo, 2005. "Error learning behaviour and stability revisited," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 371-388, March.
    6. Heemeijer Peter & Hommes Cars & Sonnemans Joep & Tuinstra Jan, 2012. "An Experimental Study on Expectations and Learning in Overlapping Generations Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(4), pages 1-49, October.
    7. Cellarier, Laurent L., 2013. "A family production overlapping generations economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 2168-2179.
    8. Anna Agliari & Ahmad Naimzada & Nicolò Pecora, 2017. "Nonlinear monetary policy rules in a pure exchange overlapping generations model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 27(5), pages 1181-1203, November.
    9. Orlando Gomes, 2010. "Ordinary Least Squares Learning And Nonlinearities In Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 52-84, February.
    10. Brock, W.A. & Dindo, P.D.E. & Hommes, C.H., 2005. "Adaptive Rational Equilibrium with Forward Looking Agents, fortcoming in International Journal of Economic Theory (IJET) 2006, special issue in honor of Jean-Michel Grandmont," CeNDEF Working Papers 05-15, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    11. Hommes, Cars & Kiseleva, Tatiana & Kuznetsov, Yuri & Verbic, Miroslav, 2012. "Is More Memory In Evolutionary Selection (De)Stabilizing?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(3), pages 335-357, June.
    12. Jan Tuinstra & Florian Wagener, 2007. "On learning equilibria," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 30(3), pages 493-513, March.
    13. Cars Hommes, 2017. "From Self-Fulfilling Mistakes to Behavioral Learning Equilibria," Studies in Economic Theory, in: Kazuo Nishimura & Alain Venditti & Nicholas C. Yannelis (ed.), Sunspots and Non-Linear Dynamics, chapter 0, pages 97-123, Springer.
    14. Branch, William A. & McGough, Bruce, 2005. "Consistent expectations and misspecification in stochastic non-linear economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 659-676, April.
    15. Boone, Brecht & Quaghebeur, Ewoud, 2018. "Beyond rational expectations: The effects of heuristic switching in an Overlapping Generations model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 349-364.

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