IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Behavioral Learning Equilibria

  • Hommes, C.H.

    ()

    (University of Amsterdam)

  • Zhu, M.

    ()

    (University of Amsterdam)

We propose behavioral learning equilibria as a plausible explanation of coordination of individual expectations and aggregate phenomena such as excess volatility in stock prices and high persistence in inflation. Boundedly rational agents use a simple univariate linear forecasting rule and correctly forecast the unconditional sample mean and first-order sample autocorrelation. In the long run, agents learn the best univariate linear forecasting rule, without fully recognizing the structure of the economy. The simplicity of behavioral learning equilibria makes coordination of individual expectations on such an aggregate outcome more likely. In a first application, an asset pricing model with AR(1) dividends, a unique behavioral learning equilibrium exists characterized by high persistence and excess volatility, and it is stable under learning. In a second application, the New Keynesian Phillips curve, multiple equilibria co-exist, learning exhibits path dependence and inflation may switch between low and high persistence regimes.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://cendef.uva.nl/binaries/content/assets/subsites/amsterdam-school-of-economics-research-institute/cendef/working-papers-2012/ble_hommes_zhu_revision.pdf?1363339491984
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance in its series CeNDEF Working Papers with number 12-09.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ams:ndfwpp:12-09
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Dept. of Economics and Econometrics, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Roetersstraat 11, NL - 1018 WB Amsterdam, The Netherlands

Phone: + 31 20 525 52 58
Fax: + 31 20 525 52 83
Web page: http://www.fee.uva.nl/cendef/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Heemeijer, P. & Hommes, C.H. & Sonnemans, J. & Tuinstra, J., 2006. "Price Stability and Volatility in Markets with Positive and Negative Expectations Feedback: An Experimental Investigation," CeNDEF Working Papers 06-05, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  2. Sargent, Thomas J., 1991. "Equilibrium with signal extraction from endogenous variables," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 245-273, April.
  3. Preston, Bruce, 2005. "Learning about Monetary Policy Rules when Long-Horizon Expectations Matter," MPRA Paper 830, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. White,Halbert, 1994. "Estimation, Inference and Specification Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521252805, December.
  5. Zheng Liu & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2008. "Learning, Adaptive Expectations, and Technology Shocks," Emory Economics 0803, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).
  6. George Evans & William Branch, 2003. "Intrinsic Heterogeneity in Expectation Formation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 312, Society for Computational Economics.
  7. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2005. "Intrinsic and inherited inflation persistence," Working Papers 05-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  8. James B. Bullard & George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2007. "A model of near-rational exuberance," Working Papers 2007-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  9. Wiliam Branch & George W. Evans, . "Asset Return Dynamics and Learning," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2006-14, University of Oregon Economics Department.
  10. Beshears, John Leonard & Choi, James J & Fuster, Andreas & Laibson, David I. & Madrian, Brigitte, 2013. "What Goes Up Must Come Down? Experimental Evidence on Intuitive Forecasting," Scholarly Articles 12378032, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  11. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2001. "European inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1237-1270.
  12. Hommes, C.H., 2010. "The Heterogeneous Expectations Hypothesis: Some Evidence from the Lab," CeNDEF Working Papers 10-06, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  13. Fuster, Andreas & Hebert, Benjamin Michael & Laibson, David I., 2012. "Investment Dynamics with Natural Expectations," Scholarly Articles 10139283, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  14. Cars Hommes & Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra & Henk van de Velden, 2005. "Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 955-980.
  15. Hommes, C.H. & Rosser, B.J., Jr., 2000. "Consistent Expectations Equilibria and Complex Dynamics in Renewable Resource Markets," CeNDEF Working Papers 00-05, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  16. Tiziana Assenza & Peter Heemeijer & Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro, 2013. "Individual Expectations and Aggregate Macro Behavior," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-016/II, Tinbergen Institute.
  17. Klaus Adam & Albert Marcet, 2010. "Booms and Busts in Asset Prices," IMES Discussion Paper Series 10-E-02, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  18. Bullard, James & Duffy, John, 2001. "Learning And Excess Volatility," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(02), pages 272-302, April.
  19. Adam, Klaus & Marcet, Albert, 2011. "Internal rationality, imperfect market knowledge and asset prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1224-1252, May.
  20. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Properties of equilibrium asset prices under alternative learning schemes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 161-217, January.
  21. Wiliam Branch & George W. Evans, . "Learning about Risk and Return: A Simple Model of Bubbles and Crashes," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2008-1, University of Oregon Economics Department.
  22. Sogner, Leopold & Mitlohner, Hans, 2002. "Consistent expectations equilibria and learning in a stock market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 171-185, February.
  23. Andreas Fuster & David Laibson & Brock Mendel, 2010. "Natural Expectations and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(4), pages 67-84, Fall.
  24. Jan Tuinstra, 2001. "Beliefs Equilbria in an Overlapping Generations Model," CeNDEF Workshop Papers, January 2001 4B.4, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  25. Ellis W. Tallman, 2003. "Monetary policy and learning: Some implications for policy and research," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q3, pages 1-9.
  26. Woodford, Michael, 1986. "Learning to Believe in Sunspots," Working Papers 86-16, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  27. Kevin J. Lansing, 2007. "Rational and Near-Rational Bubbles Without Drift," 2007 Meeting Papers 970, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  28. Kevin J. Lansing, 2006. "Time-Varying U.S. Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," 2006 Meeting Papers 758, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  29. James B. Bullard & George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2007. "Monetary policy, judgment and near-rational exuberance," Working Papers 2007-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  30. George W. Evans & William A. Branch, 2005. "Model Uncertainty and Endogenous Volatility," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 33, Society for Computational Economics.
  31. Honkapohja, Seppo & Evans, George W., 2000. "Expectations and the stability problem for optimal monetary policies," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,10, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  32. George W. Evans & Kaushik Mitra, 2012. "E-stability in the Stochastic Ramsey Model," CDMA Working Paper Series 201209, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  33. William A. Branch & George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2010. "Finite Horizon Learning," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2010-15, University of Oregon Economics Department.
  34. Adam, Klaus & Marcet, Albert, 2009. "Internal Rationality and Asset Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 7498, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  35. Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2006. "The Conquest of South American Inflation," NBER Working Papers 12606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  36. Fuster, Andreas & Herbert, Benjamin & Laibson, David I., 2011. "Natural Expectations, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Asset Pricing," Scholarly Articles 10140029, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  37. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Erratum to "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?"," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(7), pages 1849-1849, October.
  38. Adam, Klaus, 2005. "Experimental Evidence on the Persistence of Output and Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4885, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  39. Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2011. "Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy Design : Evidence from the Laboratory (Replaces CentER DP 2009-007)," Discussion Paper 2011-091, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  40. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2006. "Monetary Policy, Expectations and Commitment," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 108(1), pages 15-38, 03.
  41. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
  42. James B. Bullard & Kaushik Mitra, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Working Papers 2000-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  43. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
  44. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2006. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," NBER Working Papers 12324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  45. James B. Bullard, 2006. "The learnability criterion and monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 203-217.
  46. Allan Timmermann, 1996. "Excess Volatility and Predictability of Stock Prices in Autoregressive Dividend Models with Learning," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 63(4), pages 523-557.
  47. Fabio Milani, 2005. "Expectations, Learning and Macroeconomic Persistence," Working Papers 050608, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
  48. Michael Woodford, 2013. "Macroeconomic Analysis without the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 19368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  49. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Should Central Banks Respond to Movements in Asset Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 253-257, May.
  50. Branch, William A. & McGough, Bruce, 2005. "Consistent expectations and misspecification in stochastic non-linear economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 659-676, April.
  51. William A. Branch, 2004. "The Theory of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data on Inflation Expectations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 592-621, 07.
  52. Berardi, Michele, 2007. "Heterogeneity and misspecifications in learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3203-3227, October.
  53. Nelson, Charles R, 1972. "The Prediction Performance of the FRB-MIT-PENN Model of the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(5), pages 902-17, December.
  54. Hommes, Cars & Sorger, Gerhard, 1998. "Consistent Expectations Equilibria," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(03), pages 287-321, September.
  55. Allan G. Timmermann, 1993. "How Learning in Financial Markets Generates Excess Volatility and Predictability in Stock Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(4), pages 1135-1145.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ams:ndfwpp:12-09. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Cees C.G. Diks)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.