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Learning about Risk and Return: A Simple Model of Bubbles and Crashes

Author

Listed:
  • Wiliam Branch

    (University of Californis - Irvine)

  • George W. Evans

    (University of Oregon Economics Department)

Abstract

This paper demonstrates that an asset pricing model with least-squares learning can lead to bubbles and crashes as endogenous responses to the fundamentals driving asset prices. When agents are risk-averse they generate forecasts of the conditional variance of a stock's return. Recursive updating of the conditional variance and expected return implies two mechanisms through which learning impacts stock prices: occasional shocks may lead agents to lower their risk estimate and increase their expected return, thereby triggering a bubble; along a bubble path recursive estimates of risk will increase and crash the bubble.

Suggested Citation

  • Wiliam Branch & George W. Evans, "undated". "Learning about Risk and Return: A Simple Model of Bubbles and Crashes," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2008-1, University of Oregon Economics Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:ore:uoecwp:2008-1
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    File URL: http://economics.uoregon.edu/papers/UO-2008-1_Evans_Crash.pdf
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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