A Specification Test for Speculative Bubbles
The set of parameters needed to calculate the expected present discounted value of a stream of dividends can be estimated in two ways. One may test for speculative bubbles, or fads, by testing whether the two estimates are the same. When the test is applied to some annual U.S. stock market data, the data usually reject the null hypothesis of no bubbles. The test is of general interest since it may be applied to a wide class of linear rational expectations models.
|Date of creation:||Nov 1986|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||published as West, Kenneth D. "A Specification Test for Speculative Bubbles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. CII, No. 3, August 1987, pp. 553-580.|
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