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Regime shifts: early warnings

  • Massaro, D.


    (University of Amsterdam)

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    This paper derives a general New Keynesian framework consistent with heterogeneous expectations by explicitly solving the micro-foundations underpinning the model. The resulting reduced form is analytically tractable and encompasses the representative rational agent benchmark as a special case. We specify a setup in which some agents, as a result of cognitive limitations, make mistakes when forecasting future macroeconomic variables and update their beliefs as new information becomes available, while other agents have rational expectations. We then address determinacy issues related to the use of different interest rate rules and derive policy implications for a monetary authority aiming at stabilizing the economy in a dynamic feedback system in which macroeconomic variables and heterogeneous expectations co-evolve over time.

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    Paper provided by Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance in its series CeNDEF Working Papers with number 12-02.

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    Date of creation: 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ams:ndfwpp:12-02
    Contact details of provider: Postal:
    Dept. of Economics and Econometrics, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Roetersstraat 11, NL - 1018 WB Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    Phone: + 31 20 525 52 58
    Fax: + 31 20 525 52 83
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    3. Hommes, C.H., 2010. "The Heterogeneous Expectations Hypothesis: Some Evidence from the Lab," CeNDEF Working Papers 10-06, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    4. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Cars Hommes & Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra & Henk van de Velden, 2003. "Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-010/1, Tinbergen Institute.
    6. Anufriev, Mikhail & Assenza, Tiziana & Hommes, Cars & Massaro, Domenico, 2013. "Interest Rate Rules And Macroeconomic Stability Under Heterogeneous Expectations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(08), pages 1574-1604, December.
    7. Adam, Klaus, 2005. "Experimental evidence on the persistence of output and inflation," Working Paper Series 0492, European Central Bank.
    8. Jan Tuinstra & Florian Wagener, 2007. "On learning equilibria," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 30(3), pages 493-513, March.
    9. Tiziana Assenza & Peter Heemeijer & Cars Hommes & Domenica Massaro, 2011. "Individual Expectations and Aggregate Macro Behavior," DNB Working Papers 298, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    10. Damjan Pfajfar & Emiliano Santoro, 2010. "Heterogeneity, Learning and Information Stickiness in Inflation Expectations," Post-Print hal-00849412, HAL.
    11. Bruce Preston, 2003. "Learning about monetary policy rules when long-horizon expectations matter," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2003-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    12. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Diks, C.G.H. & Weide, R. van der, 2002. "Continuous Beliefs Dynamics," CeNDEF Working Papers 02-11, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    14. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2002. "Evolutionary dynamics in markets with many trader types," CeNDEF Working Papers 02-10, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    15. Brock, W.A. & de Fontnouvelle, P., 1996. "Expectational Diversity in Monetary Economics," Working papers 9624, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
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    18. Berardi, Michele, 2007. "Heterogeneity and misspecifications in learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3203-3227, October.
    19. Stefano DellaVigna, 2007. "Psychology and Economics: Evidence from the Field," NBER Working Papers 13420, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Branch, William A. & McGough, Bruce, 2009. "A New Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1036-1051, May.
    21. Alex Brazier & Richard Harrison & Mervyn King & Tony Yates, 2008. "The Danger of Inflating Expectations of Macroeconomic Stability: Heuristic Switching in an Overlapping-Generations Monetary Model," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 219-254, June.
    22. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J, 1989. "Convergence of Least-Squares Learning in Environments with Hidden State Variables and Private Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1306-22, December.
    23. Daniel Kahneman & Richard H. Thaler, 2006. "Anomalies: Utility Maximization and Experienced Utility," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(1), pages 221-234, Winter.
    24. Kaushik Mitra & James Bullard, . "Learning About Monetary Policy Rules," Discussion Papers 00/41, Department of Economics, University of York.
    25. Cees Diks & Roy van der Weide, 2003. "Continuous Beliefs Dynamics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-007/1, Tinbergen Institute.
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