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Regime shifts: early warnings

  • Massaro, D.


    (University of Amsterdam)

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    This paper derives a general New Keynesian framework consistent with heterogeneous expectations by explicitly solving the micro-foundations underpinning the model. The resulting reduced form is analytically tractable and encompasses the representative rational agent benchmark as a special case. We specify a setup in which some agents, as a result of cognitive limitations, make mistakes when forecasting future macroeconomic variables and update their beliefs as new information becomes available, while other agents have rational expectations. We then address determinacy issues related to the use of different interest rate rules and derive policy implications for a monetary authority aiming at stabilizing the economy in a dynamic feedback system in which macroeconomic variables and heterogeneous expectations co-evolve over time.

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    Paper provided by Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance in its series CeNDEF Working Papers with number 12-02.

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    Date of creation: 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ams:ndfwpp:12-02
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Dept. of Economics and Econometrics, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Roetersstraat 11, NL - 1018 WB Amsterdam, The Netherlands
    Phone: + 31 20 525 52 58
    Fax: + 31 20 525 52 83
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    1. Pfajfar, Damjan & Santoro, Emiliano, 2010. "Heterogeneity, learning and information stickiness in inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 426-444, September.
    2. Alex Brazier & Richard Harrison & Mervyn King & Tony Yates, 2008. "The Danger of Inflating Expectations of Macroeconomic Stability: Heuristic Switching in an Overlapping-Generations Monetary Model," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 219-254, June.
    3. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2001. "Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies," CEPR Discussion Papers 2805, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Hommes, C.H., 2010. "The Heterogeneous Expectations Hypothesis: Some Evidence from the Lab," CeNDEF Working Papers 10-06, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    5. Christopher D. Carroll, 2003. "Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(1), pages 269-298.
    6. William A. Brock & Patrick de Fontnouvelle, 1996. "Expectational Diversity in Monetary Economies," Working Papers 96-11-084, Santa Fe Institute.
    7. Assenza, T. & Heemeijer, P. & Hommes, C.H. & Massaro, D., 2011. "Individual Expectations and Aggregate Macro Behavior," CeNDEF Working Papers 11-01, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    8. Branch, William A. & McGough, Bruce, 2009. "A New Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1036-1051, May.
    9. Florian Wagener & Jan Tuinstra, 2004. "On Learning Equilibria," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 217, Society for Computational Economics.
    10. John B. Taylor, 1998. "An Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Working Papers 6768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. James B. Bullard & Kaushik Mitra, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Working Papers 2000-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    12. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    13. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2002. "Evolutionary dynamics in markets with many trader types," CeNDEF Working Papers 02-10, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    14. Bruce Preston, 2005. "Learning about Monetary Policy Rules when Long-Horizon Expectations Matter," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(2), September.
    15. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. John H. Cochrane, 2007. "Determinacy and Identification with Taylor Rules," NBER Working Papers 13410, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Cars Hommes & Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra & Henk van de Velden, 2005. "Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 955-980.
    18. Stefano DellaVigna, 2009. "Psychology and Economics: Evidence from the Field," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 315-72, June.
    19. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J, 1989. "Convergence of Least-Squares Learning in Environments with Hidden State Variables and Private Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1306-22, December.
    20. Adam, Klaus, 2005. "Experimental evidence on the persistence of output and inflation," Working Paper Series 0492, European Central Bank.
    21. Daniel Kahneman & Richard H. Thaler, 2006. "Anomalies: Utility Maximization and Experienced Utility," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(1), pages 221-234, Winter.
    22. Berardi, Michele, 2007. "Heterogeneity and misspecifications in learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3203-3227, October.
    23. Mikhail Anufriev & Tiziana Assenza & Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro, 0000. "Interest Rate Rules and Macroeconomic Stability under Heterogeneous Expectations," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 09-040/1, Tinbergen Institute.
    24. Diks, C.G.H. & Weide, R. van der, 2002. "Continuous Beliefs Dynamics," CeNDEF Working Papers 02-11, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
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