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Regime shifts: early warnings

  • Massaro, D.

    ()

    (University of Amsterdam)

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    This paper derives a general New Keynesian framework consistent with heterogeneous expectations by explicitly solving the micro-foundations underpinning the model. The resulting reduced form is analytically tractable and encompasses the representative rational agent benchmark as a special case. We specify a setup in which some agents, as a result of cognitive limitations, make mistakes when forecasting future macroeconomic variables and update their beliefs as new information becomes available, while other agents have rational expectations. We then address determinacy issues related to the use of different interest rate rules and derive policy implications for a monetary authority aiming at stabilizing the economy in a dynamic feedback system in which macroeconomic variables and heterogeneous expectations co-evolve over time.

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    File URL: http://www1.fee.uva.nl/cendef/publications/papers/m%20revision.pdf
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    Paper provided by Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance in its series CeNDEF Working Papers with number 12-02.

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    Date of creation: 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ams:ndfwpp:12-02
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Dept. of Economics and Econometrics, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Roetersstraat 11, NL - 1018 WB Amsterdam, The Netherlands
    Phone: + 31 20 525 52 58
    Fax: + 31 20 525 52 83
    Web page: http://www.fee.uva.nl/cendef/
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    1. John H. Cochrane, 2007. "Determinacy and Identification with Taylor Rules," NBER Working Papers 13409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Preston, Bruce, 2005. "Learning about Monetary Policy Rules when Long-Horizon Expectations Matter," MPRA Paper 830, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H. & Wagener, Florian O. O., 2005. "Evolutionary dynamics in markets with many trader types," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 7-42, February.
    4. Diks, C.G.H. & Weide, R. van der, 2002. "Continuous Beliefs Dynamics," CeNDEF Working Papers 02-11, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    5. S. Dellavigna., 2011. "Psychology and Economics: Evidence from the Field," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 4.
    6. Tiziana Assenza & Peter Heemeijer & Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro, 2013. "Individual Expectations and Aggregate Macro Behavior," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-016/II, Tinbergen Institute.
    7. Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and some Theory," Working Papers 98-01, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
    8. repec:att:wimass:9624 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2001. "Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies," CEPR Discussion Papers 2805, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Jan Tuinstra & Florian Wagener, 2007. "On learning equilibria," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 493-513, March.
    12. Adam, Klaus, 2005. "Experimental Evidence on the Persistence of Output and Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4885, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Hommes, Cars, 2011. "The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: Some evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-24, January.
    14. Christopher D. Carroll, 2003. "Macroeconomic Expectations Of Households And Professional Forecasters," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(1), pages 269-298, February.
    15. John B. Taylor, 1999. "A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 319-348 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Alex Brazier & Richard Harrison & Mervyn King & Tony Yates, 2006. "The danger of inflating expectations of macroeconomic stability: heuristic switching in an overlapping generations monetary model," Bank of England working papers 303, Bank of England.
    17. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J, 1989. "Convergence of Least-Squares Learning in Environments with Hidden State Variables and Private Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1306-22, December.
    18. Berardi, Michele, 2007. "Heterogeneity and misspecifications in learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3203-3227, October.
    19. William A. Brock & Patrick de Fontnouvelle, 1996. "Expectational Diversity in Monetary Economies," Working Papers 96-11-084, Santa Fe Institute.
    20. Bullard, James & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1105-1129, September.
    21. Daniel Kahneman & Richard H. Thaler, 2006. "Anomalies: Utility Maximization and Experienced Utility," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(1), pages 221-234, Winter.
    22. Tiziana Assenza & Peter Heemeijer & Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro, 2013. "Individual Expectations and Aggregate Macro Behavior," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-016/II, Tinbergen Institute.
    23. Pfajfar, Damjan & Santoro, Emiliano, 2010. "Heterogeneity, learning and information stickiness in inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 426-444, September.
    24. Cars Hommes & Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra & Henk van de Velden, 2004. "Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 119, Netherlands Central Bank.
    25. Branch, William A. & McGough, Bruce, 2009. "A New Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1036-1051, May.
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