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Is more memory in evolutionary selection (de)stabilizing?

  • Hommes, C.H.

    ()

    (University of Amsterdam)

  • Kiseleva, T.

    ()

    (University of Amsterdam)

  • Kuznetsov, Y.

    (Utrecht University)

  • Verbic, M.

    (Institute for Economic Research, Ljubljana, Slovenia)

We investigate the effects of memory on the stability of evolutionary selection dynamics based on a multi-nomial logit model in an asset pricing model with heterogeneous beliefs. Whether memory is stabilizing or destabilizing depends in general on three key factors: (1) whether or not the weights on past observations are normalized; (2) the ecology of forecasting rules, in particular the average strength of trend extrapolation and the spread in biased forecasts, and (3) whether or not costs for information gathering of economic fundamentals have to be incurred.

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File URL: http://www1.fee.uva.nl/cendef/publications/papers/HomKisKuzVerMarch2009.pdf
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Paper provided by Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance in its series CeNDEF Working Papers with number 09-07.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ams:ndfwpp:09-07
Contact details of provider: Postal: Dept. of Economics and Econometrics, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Roetersstraat 11, NL - 1018 WB Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Phone: + 31 20 525 52 58
Fax: + 31 20 525 52 83
Web page: http://www.fee.uva.nl/cendef/
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  1. De Grauwe, Paul & Grimaldi, Marianna, 2006. "Exchange rate puzzles: A tale of switching attractors," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 1-33, January.
  2. Xue-Zhong He & Carl Chiarella, 1999. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset-Pricing Model," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 223, Society for Computational Economics.
  3. repec:att:wimass:9530 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He & Peiyuan Zhu, 2003. "Fading Memory Learning in the Cobweb Model with Risk Averse Heterogeneous Producers," Research Paper Series 108, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  5. Florian Wagener & Jan Tuinstra, 2004. "On Learning Equilibria," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 217, Society for Computational Economics.
  6. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2002. "Adaptive Learning and Monetary Policy Design," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2002-18, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 04 Mar 2004.
  7. Jan Tuinstra, 2001. "Beliefs Equilbria in an Overlapping Generations Model," CeNDEF Workshop Papers, January 2001 4B.4, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  8. Diks, Cees & van der Weide, Roy, 2005. "Herding, a-synchronous updating and heterogeneity in memory in a CBS," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 741-763, April.
  9. Brock,W.A. & Durlauf,S.N., 2000. "Discrete choice with social interactions," Working papers 7, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  10. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He & Cars Hommes, 2004. "A Dynamic Analysis of Moving Average Rules," Research Paper Series 133, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  11. Mikhail Anufriev & Tiziana Assenza & Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro, 0000. "Interest Rate Rules and Macroeconomic Stability under Heterogeneous Expectations," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 09-040/1, Tinbergen Institute.
  12. Gaunersdorfer, Andrea, 2000. "Endogenous fluctuations in a simple asset pricing model with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 799-831, June.
  13. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H. & Wagener, Florian O. O., 2005. "Evolutionary dynamics in markets with many trader types," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 7-42, February.
  14. Cars Hommes & Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra & Henk van de Velden, 2005. "Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 955-980.
  15. Colin Camerer & Teck-Hua Ho, 1999. "Experience-weighted Attraction Learning in Normal Form Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(4), pages 827-874, July.
  16. LeBaron, Blake, 2000. "Agent-based computational finance: Suggested readings and early research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 679-702, June.
  17. Boswijk, H. Peter & Hommes, Cars H. & Manzan, Sebastiano, 2007. "Behavioral heterogeneity in stock prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1938-1970, June.
  18. Gaunersdorfer, Andrea & Hommes, Cars H. & Wagener, Florian O.O., 2008. "Bifurcation routes to volatility clustering under evolutionary learning," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 27-47, July.
  19. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
  20. Mikhail Anufriev, 2005. "Wealth-Driven Competition in a Speculative Financial Market: Examples with Maximizing Agents," LEM Papers Series 2005/27, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  21. Sergio Da Silva, 2001. "Chaotic Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 281-304, July.
  22. Kaushik Mitra & Seppo Honkapohja, 1999. "Learning with Bounded Memory in Stochastic Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 221, Society for Computational Economics.
  23. George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2003. "Monetary Policy, Indeterminacy and Learning," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2003-34, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Apr 2004.
  24. Hommes, Cars & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan & van de Velden, Henk, 2008. "Expectations and bubbles in asset pricing experiments," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 116-133, July.
  25. Simone Alfarano & Thomas Lux & Friedrich Wagner, 2005. "Estimation of Agent-Based Models: The Case of an Asymmetric Herding Model," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 19-49, August.
  26. Blake LeBaron, 1999. "Evolution and Time Horizons in an Agent-Based Stock Market," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1342, Society for Computational Economics.
  27. Hommes, Cars & Huang, Hai & Wang, Duo, 2005. "A robust rational route to randomness in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1043-1072, June.
  28. De Grauwe, Paul & Grimaldi, Marianna, 2005. "Heterogeneity of agents, transactions costs and the exchange rate," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 691-719, April.
  29. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
  30. James B. Bullard & George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2007. "Monetary policy, judgment and near-rational exuberance," Working Papers 2007-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  31. Lux, Thomas, 1995. "Herd Behaviour, Bubbles and Crashes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 881-96, July.
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