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Bounded Rationality and Learning in Complex Markets

Listed author(s):
  • Hommes, C.H.

    ()

    (Universiteit van Amsterdam)

This chapter reviews some work on bounded rationality, expectation formation and learning in complex markets, using the familiar demand-supply cobweb model. We emphasize two stories of bounded rationality, one story of adaptive learning and another story of evolutionary selection. According to the adaptive learning story agents are identical, and can be represented by an ``average agent'', who adapts his behavior trying to learn an optimal rule within a class of simple (e.g. linear) rules. The second story is concerned with heterogeneous, interacting agents and evolutionary selection of different forecasting rules. Agents can choose between costly sophisticated forecasting strategies, such as rational expectations, and freely available simple strategies, such as naive expectations, based upon their past performance. We also confront both stories to laboratory experiments on expectation formation. At the end of the chapter, we integrate both stories and consider an economy with evolutionary selection between a costly sophisticated adaptive learning rule and a cheap simple forecasting rule such as naive expectations.

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Paper provided by Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance in its series CeNDEF Working Papers with number 07-01.

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Date of creation: 2007
Handle: RePEc:ams:ndfwpp:07-01
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Dept. of Economics and Econometrics, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Roetersstraat 11, NL - 1018 WB Amsterdam, The Netherlands

Phone: + 31 20 525 52 58
Fax: + 31 20 525 52 83
Web page: http://www.fee.uva.nl/cendef/
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  15. Adam, Klaus, 2005. "Experimental evidence on the persistence of output and inflation," Working Paper Series 0492, European Central Bank.
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  20. Hommes, C.H. & Rosser, B.J., Jr., 2000. "Consistent Expectations Equilibria and Complex Dynamics in Renewable Resource Markets," CeNDEF Working Papers 00-05, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  21. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1995. "Rational Routes to Randomness," Working Papers 95-03-029, Santa Fe Institute.
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  24. Tesfatsion, Leigh & Judd, Kenneth L., 2006. "Handbook of Computational Economics, Vol. 2: Agent-Based Computational Economics," Staff General Research Papers Archive 10368, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  25. Diks, C.G.H. & Dindo, P.D.E., 2006. "Informational differences and learning in an asset market with boundedly rational agents," CeNDEF Working Papers 06-11, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  26. Smith, Vernon L & Suchanek, Gerry L & Williams, Arlington W, 1988. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1119-1151, September.
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  40. Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "On the consistency of backward-looking expectations: The case of the cobweb," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 333-362, January.
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  44. Goeree, Jacob K. & Hommes, Cars H., 2000. "Heterogeneous beliefs and the non-linear cobweb model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 761-798, June.
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  48. Chiarella, Carl, 1988. "The cobweb model: Its instability and the onset of chaos," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 377-384, October.
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