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Experiments on Expectations in Macroeconomics and Finance

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  • Assenza, T.

    () (CAtholic University of Milan)

  • Bao, T.

    () (Nanyang Technological University)

  • Massaro, D.

    () (University of Amsterdam)

  • Hommes, C.H.

    () (University of Amsterdam)

Abstract

Expectations play a crucial role in nance, macroeconomics, monetary economics and fiscal policy. In the last decade a rapidly increasing number of laboratory experiments have been performed to study individual expectation formation, the interactions of individual forecasting rules and the aggregate macro behavior they co-create. The aim of this chapter is to provide a comprehensive literature survey on laboratory experiments on expectations in macroeconomics and finance. In particular, we discuss the extent to which expectations are rational or may be described by simple forecasting heuristics, at the individual as well as the aggregate level.

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  • Assenza, T. & Bao, T. & Massaro, D. & Hommes, C.H., 2014. "Experiments on Expectations in Macroeconomics and Finance," CeNDEF Working Papers 14-05, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:ams:ndfwpp:14-05
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    Cited by:

    1. Anita Kopanyi-Peuker & Matthias Weber, 2018. "Experience Does not Eliminate Bubbles: Experimental Evidence," Working Papers on Finance 1822, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    2. Annarita Colasante & Simone Alfarano & Eva Camacho-Cuena & Mauro Gallegati, 2017. "Long-run expectations in a Learning-to-Forecast Experiment: A Simulation Approach," Working Papers 2017/03, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    3. Colasante, Annarita & Alfarano, Simone & Camacho-Cuena, Eva, 2018. "The term structure of cross-sectional dispersion of expectations in a Learning-to-Forecast Experiment," MPRA Paper 84835, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Saskia ter Ellen & Willem F.C. Verschoor, 2017. "Heterogeneous beliefs and asset price dynamics: a survey of recent evidence," Working Paper 2017/22, Norges Bank.
    5. Florian Peters & Simas Kucinskas, 2018. "Measuring Biases in Expectation Formation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-058/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    6. Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Joseph E. Stiglitz & Tania Treibich, 2017. "Rational Heuristics? Expectations and Behaviors in Evolving Economies with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents," LEM Papers Series 2017/31, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    7. Pecora, Nicolò & Spelta, Alessandro, 2017. "Managing monetary policy in a New Keynesian model with many beliefs types," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 53-58.
    8. Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro & Matthias Weber, 2015. "Monetary Policy under Behavioral Expectations: Theory and Experiment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-087/II, Tinbergen Institute.
    9. repec:eee:eecrev:v:100:y:2017:i:c:p:72-94 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Annarita Colasante & Simone Alfarano & Eva Camacho-Cuena, 2019. "Heuristic Switching Model and Exploration-Explotation Algorithm to describe long-run expectations in LtFEs: A comparison," Working Papers 2019/02, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    11. Camille Cornand & Frank Heinemann, 2015. "Macro-expérimentation autour des fonctions des banques centrales," Revue française d'économie, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(2), pages 3-47.
    12. Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro & Isabelle Salle, 2019. "Monetary And Fiscal Policy Design At The Zero Lower Bound: Evidence From The Lab," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(2), pages 1120-1140, April.
    13. Hommes, C.H. & Bao, T., 2015. "When Speculators Meet Constructors: Positive and Negative Feedback in Experimental Housing Markets," CeNDEF Working Papers 15-10, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    14. repec:eee:intfor:v:33:y:2017:i:4:p:988-1006 is not listed on IDEAS

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