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Learning to Forecast Price

Author

Listed:
  • Hugh Kelley
  • Daniel Friedman

Abstract

We study learning in an individual choice price forecasting task in which subjects must learn coefficients of two independent variables in stationary linear stochastic processes. The 99 subjects each forecast in 480 trials with feedback. Learning is tracked by fitting individual forecasts to the independent variables. Results: (1) Learning is fairly consistent with respect to objective values, but with slight tendency toward overresponse. (2) Learning is noticeably slower than the Marcet-Sargent ideal. Two striking treatment effects are tendencies toward (3) overresponse with high background noise and (4) underresponse with asymmetric coefficients. Copyright 2002, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Hugh Kelley & Daniel Friedman, 2002. "Learning to Forecast Price," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(4), pages 556-573, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:40:y:2002:i:4:p:556-573
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Heemeijer, Peter & Hommes, Cars & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan, 2009. "Price stability and volatility in markets with positive and negative expectations feedback: An experimental investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1052-1072, May.
    2. Troy Tassier, 2013. "Handbook of Research on Complexity, by J. Barkley Rosser, Jr. and Edward Elgar," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 39(1), pages 132-133.
    3. Jean Paul Rabanal & Aleksei Chernulich & John Horowitz & Olga A. Rud & Manizha Sharifova, 2019. "Market timing under public and private information," Working Papers 151, Peruvian Economic Association.
    4. Cars H. Hommes, 2009. "Bounded Rationality and Learning in Complex Markets," Chapters, in: J. Barkley Rosser Jr. (ed.), Handbook of Research on Complexity, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Hommes, C.H. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2008. "Complex evolutionary systems in behavioral finance," CeNDEF Working Papers 08-05, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    6. John Duffy, 2008. "Macroeconomics: A Survey of Laboratory Research," Working Paper 334, Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh, revised Jun 2014.
    7. Hommes, Cars, 2011. "The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: Some evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-24, January.
    8. Hugh Kelley & Tom Evans, 2010. "Measuring the Impact of Behavioral Traders in the Market for Closed-end Country Funds from 2002 to 2009," Chapters, in: Brian Bruce (ed.), Handbook of Behavioral Finance, chapter 16, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Domenico Colucci & Vincenzo Valori, 2004. "Adaptive learning in the Cobweb with an endogenous gain sequence," Working Papers - Mathematical Economics 2004-01, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    10. Hommes, Cars & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan & Van De Velden, Henk, 2007. "Learning In Cobweb Experiments," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(S1), pages 8-33, November.
    11. Tiziana Assenza & Te Bao & Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro, 2014. "Experiments on Expectations in Macroeconomics and Finance," Research in Experimental Economics, in: Experiments in Macroeconomics, volume 17, pages 11-70, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    12. repec:ams:ndfwpp:02-07 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Kopányi, Dávid & Rabanal, Jean Paul & Rud, Olga A. & Tuinstra, Jan, 2019. "Can competition between forecasters stabilize asset prices in learning to forecast experiments?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    14. Cars Hommes, 2010. "The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: some evidence from the lab," Post-Print hal-00753041, HAL.
    15. Hommes, Cars & Massaro, Domenico & Weber, Matthias, 2019. "Monetary policy under behavioral expectations: Theory and experiment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 193-212.
    16. Chernulich, Aleksei & Horowitz, John & Rabanal, Jean Paul & Rud, Olga A & Sharifova , Manizha, 2021. "Entry and exit decisions under public and private information: An experiment," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2021/3, University of Stavanger.
    17. Domenico Colucci & Vincenzo Valori, 2004. "Generalised Fading Memory Learning in a Cobweb Model: some evidence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 272, Society for Computational Economics.
    18. Aleksei Chernulich & John Horowitz & Jean Paul Rabanal & Olga Rud & Manizha Sharifova, 2023. "Entry and exit decisions under public and private information: an experiment," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 26(2), pages 339-356, April.
    19. Hugh Kelley, 2014. "Experimental Study of Firm Bounded Rationality and the Pattern of Trade," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(4), pages 969-1006, December.
    20. Hommes, C.H. & Sonnemans, J. & Tuinstra, J. & Velden, H. van de, 2004. "Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments (Version March 2004)," CeNDEF Working Papers 04-02, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    21. Antonio Doria, Francisco, 2011. "J.B. Rosser Jr. , Handbook of Research on Complexity, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK--Northampton, MA, USA (2009) 436 + viii pp., index, ISBN 978 1 84542 089 5 (cased)," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 78(1-2), pages 196-204, April.
    22. Marco Novarese, 2002. "Toward a Cognitive Experimental Economics," Experimental 0211002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Rolison, Jonathan J. & Evans, Jonathan St. B.T. & Dennis, Ian & Walsh, Clare R., 2012. "Dual-processes in learning and judgment: Evidence from the multiple cue probability learning paradigm," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 189-202.
    24. Anufriev, Mikhail & Chernulich, Aleksei & Tuinstra, Jan, 2018. "A laboratory experiment on the heuristic switching model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 21-42.
    25. Nobuyuki Hanaki & Cars Hommes & Dávid Kopányi & Anita Kopányi-Peuker & Jan Tuinstra, 2023. "Forecasting returns instead of prices exacerbates financial bubbles," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 26(5), pages 1185-1213, November.

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