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Bubble Formation and (In)efficient Markets in Learning-to-Forecast and -Optimize Experiments

  • Bao, T.

    ()

    (University of Amsterdam)

  • Hommes, C.H.

    ()

    (University of Amsterdam)

  • Makarewicz, T.A.

    ()

    (University of Amsterdam)

This experiment compares the price dynamics and bubble formation in an asset market with a price adjustment rule in three treatments where subjects (1) submit a price forecast only, (2) choose quantity to buy/sell and (3) perform both tasks. We find that bubbles emerge in all these treatments, but to a larger degree in treatment (2) and (3). Our result confirms that bubble formation is a robust finding in markets with positive expectation feedback. We also find some repeated ``super bubbles'' where the price is 3 times larger than the fundamental value, which were not seen in former experiments.

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File URL: http://www1.fee.uva.nl/cendef/publications/papers/BaoHommesMakarewicz_LtFLtOFinance.pdf
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Paper provided by Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance in its series CeNDEF Working Papers with number 14-01.

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Date of creation: 2014
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Handle: RePEc:ams:ndfwpp:14-01
Contact details of provider: Postal: Dept. of Economics and Econometrics, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Roetersstraat 11, NL - 1018 WB Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Phone: + 31 20 525 52 58
Fax: + 31 20 525 52 83
Web page: http://www.fee.uva.nl/cendef/Email:


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  1. Ariel Rubinstein, 2006. "Instinctive and Cognitive Reasoning: A Study of Response Times," Working Papers 2006.36, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  2. Heemeijer, P. & Hommes, C.H. & Sonnemans, J. & Tuinstra, J., 2006. "Price Stability and Volatility in Markets with Positive and Negative Expectations Feedback: An Experimental Investigation," CeNDEF Working Papers 06-05, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  3. Lei, Vivian & Noussair, Charles N & Plott, Charles R, 2001. "Nonspeculative Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets: Lack of Common Knowledge of Rationality vs. Actual Irrationality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(4), pages 831-59, July.
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  6. Hommes, Cars, 2011. "The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: Some evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-24, January.
  7. Noussair, C.N. & Tucker, S., 2013. "Experimental Research On Asset Pricing," Discussion Paper 2013-020, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  8. Robert J. Shiller, 2002. "From Efficient Market Theory to Behavioral Finance," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1385, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  9. Charles Noussair & Stephane Robin & Bernard Ruffieux, 2001. "Price Bubbles in Laboratory Asset Markets with Constant Fundamental Values," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 87-105, June.
  10. Cars Hommes & Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra & Henk van de Velden, 2005. "Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 955-980.
  11. Bao, Te & Hommes, Cars & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan, 2012. "Individual expectations, limited rationality and aggregate outcomes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1101-1120.
  12. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
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  19. Bao, Te & Duffy, John & Hommes, Cars, 2013. "Learning, forecasting and optimizing: An experimental study," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 186-204.
  20. Smith, Vernon L & Suchanek, Gerry L & Williams, Arlington W, 1988. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1119-51, September.
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  24. Eizo Akiyama & Nobuyuki Hanaki & Ryuichiro Ishikawa, 2012. "Effect of Uncertainty about Others' Rationality in Experimental Asset Markets: An Experimental Analysis," Working Papers halshs-00793613, HAL.
  25. Jürgen Huber & Michael Kirchler, 2012. "The impact of instructions and procedure on reducing confusion and bubbles in experimental asset markets," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 89-105, March.
  26. Michael Kirchler & Jurgen Huber & Thomas Stockl, 2012. "Thar She Bursts: Reducing Confusion Reduces Bubbles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 865-83, April.
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