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Experience Does Not Eliminate Bubbles: Experimental Evidence

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  • Anita Kopányi-Peuker
  • Matthias Weber
  • Lauren Cohen

Abstract

We study the role of investor experience in the formation of asset price bubbles. We conduct a call market experiment in which participants trade assets with each other and a learning-to-forecast experiment in which participants only forecast future prices (while trade based on these forecasts is computerized). Each experiment comprises three treatments varying the information that participants receive about the fundamental value. Each experimental market is repeated three times. Throughout, we observe sizable bubbles that persist despite participant experience. Our findings in the call market experiment contrast with those in the literature. Our findings in the learning-to-forecast experiment are novel.

Suggested Citation

  • Anita Kopányi-Peuker & Matthias Weber & Lauren Cohen, 2021. "Experience Does Not Eliminate Bubbles: Experimental Evidence," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(9), pages 4450-4485.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:34:y:2021:i:9:p:4450-4485.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cars Hommes & Anita Kopányi-Peuker & Joep Sonnemans, 2021. "Bubbles, crashes and information contagion in large-group asset market experiments," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 24(2), pages 414-433, June.
    2. Roger, Tristan & Roger, Patrick & Willinger, Marc, 2022. "Number sense, trading decisions and mispricing: An experiment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    3. Bulutay, Muhammed & Cornand, Camille & Zylbersztejn, Adam, 2022. "Learning to deal with repeated shocks under strategic complementarity: An experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 1318-1343.
    4. John Duffy & Janet Hua Jiang & Huan Xie, 2021. "Pricing Indefinitely Lived Assets: Experimental Evidence," CIRANO Working Papers 2021s-32, CIRANO.
    5. Bao, Te & Hommes, Cars & Pei, Jiaoying, 2021. "Expectation formation in finance and macroeconomics: A review of new experimental evidence," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    6. Anufriev, Mikhail & Chernulich, Aleksei & Tuinstra, Jan, 2022. "Asset price volatility and investment horizons: An experimental investigation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 19-48.
    7. Matthias Weber & John Duffy & Arthur Schram, 2019. "Credit Default Swap Regulation in Experimental Bond Markets," Working Papers on Finance 1905, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    8. Weber, Matthias, 2019. "Behavioral Optimal Taxation: The Case of Aspirations," SocArXiv fpnw6, Center for Open Science.
    9. Weber, Matthias, 2022. "From Individual Human Decisions to Economic and Financial Policies," SocArXiv 5ju7z, Center for Open Science.
    10. Te Bao & Brice Corgnet & Nobuyuki Hanaki & Yohanes E. Riyanto & Jiahua Zhu, 2022. "Predicting the unpredictable: New experimental evidence on forecasting random walks," ISER Discussion Paper 1181, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    11. Kopányi, Dávid & Rabanal, Jean Paul & Rud, Olga A. & Tuinstra, Jan, 2019. "Can competition between forecasters stabilize asset prices in learning to forecast experiments?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    12. Matthias Weber, 2021. "Behavioral optimal taxation: Aspirations," Journal of Behavioral Economics for Policy, Society for the Advancement of Behavioral Economics (SABE), vol. 5(1), pages 19-26, Septembre.

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    JEL classification:

    • G40 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
    • D90 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General

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