IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tin/wpaper/20190016.html

Bubbles, crashes and information contagion in large-group asset market experiments

Author

Listed:
  • Cars Hommes

    (University of Amsterdam)

  • Anita Kopányi-Peuker

    (University of Amsterdam)

  • Joep Sonnemans

    (University of Amsterdam)

Abstract

We study the emergence of bubbles in a laboratory experiment with large groups of individuals. The realized price is the aggregation of the forecasts of a group of individuals, with positive expectations feedback through speculative demand. When prices deviate from fundamental value, a random selection of participants receives news about overvaluation. Our findings are: (i) large asset bubbles occur in large groups, (ii) information contagion through news affects behaviour and may break the coordination on a bubble, (iii) time varying heterogeneity provides an accurate explanation of bubble formation and crashes, and (iv) bubbles are strongly amplified by coordination on trend-extrapolation.

Suggested Citation

  • Cars Hommes & Anita Kopányi-Peuker & Joep Sonnemans, "undated". "Bubbles, crashes and information contagion in large-group asset market experiments," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-016/II, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20190016
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://papers.tinbergen.nl/19016.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Bao, Te & Hommes, Cars & Pei, Jiaoying, 2021. "Expectation formation in finance and macroeconomics: A review of new experimental evidence," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    3. Chavas, Jean-Paul & Li, Jian & Wang, Linjie, 2024. "Option pricing revisited: The role of price volatility and dynamics," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    4. Bao, Te & Corgnet, Brice & Hanaki, Nobuyuki & Riyanto, Yohanes E. & Zhu, Jiahua, 2023. "Predicting the unpredictable: New experimental evidence on forecasting random walks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    5. Mikhail Anufriev & Frieder Neunhoeffer & Jan Tuinstra, 2024. "Time pressure reduces financial bubbles: Evidence from a forecasting experiment," Working Papers REM 2024/0351, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    6. Myrna Hennequin & Cars Hommes, 2024. "Managing Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets with Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(2-3), pages 429-454, March.
    7. Salle, Isabelle L., 2023. "What to target? Insights from a lab experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 514-533.
    8. Bao, Te & Füllbrunn, Sascha & Pei, Jiaoying & Zong, Jichuan, 2024. "Reading the market? Expectation coordination and theory of mind," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 219(C), pages 510-527.
    9. Nobuyuki Hanaki & Cars Hommes & Dávid Kopányi & Anita Kopányi-Peuker & Jan Tuinstra, 2023. "Forecasting returns instead of prices exacerbates financial bubbles," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 26(5), pages 1185-1213, November.
    10. Weimann, Joachim & Brosig-Koch, Jeannette & Heinrich, Timo & Hennig-Schmidt, Heike & Keser, Claudia, 2022. "CO2 Emission reduction – Real public good provision by large groups in the laboratory," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 1076-1089.
    11. Bazzana, Davide & Colturato, Michele & Savona, Roberto, 2023. "Learning about unprecedented events: Agent-based modelling and the stock market impact of COVID-19," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    12. Anufriev, Mikhail & Chernulich, Aleksei & Tuinstra, Jan, 2022. "Asset price volatility and investment horizons: An experimental investigation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 19-48.
    13. Chavas, Jean-Paul & Li, Jian & Wang, Linjie, 2024. "Option Pricing Revisited: The Role of Price Volatility and Dynamics," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343544, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    14. Yi, Zhen & Zhu, Chao & Zhang, Yuwei, 2024. "Why risk attitude differs between macro and micro level? A decoherence perspective," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 978-997.
    15. Kopányi-Peuker, Anita & Weber, Matthias, 2024. "The role of the end time in experimental asset markets," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    16. Kresta Aleš & Sedláková Michaela, 2025. "How initial price history influences expectation formation in multi-asset experimental markets: An exploratory case study," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 11(2), pages 7-37.
    17. repec:ags:aaea22:343544 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20190016. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tinbergen Office +31 (0)10-4088900 (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/tinbenl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.