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Bubble Formation and (In)Efficient Markets in Learning‐to‐forecast and optimise Experiments

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  • Te Bao
  • Cars Hommes
  • Tomasz Makarewicz

Abstract

This experiment compares the price dynamics and bubble formation in an asset market with a price adjustment rule in three treatments where subjects: (1) submit a price forecast only; (2) choose quantity to buy/sell and (3) perform both tasks. We find deviation of the market price from the fundamental price in all treatments, but to a larger degree in treatments (2) and (3). Mispricing is therefore a robust finding in markets with positive expectation feedback. Some very large, recurring bubbles arise, where the price is three times larger than the fundamental value, which were not seen in former experiments.

Suggested Citation

  • Te Bao & Cars Hommes & Tomasz Makarewicz, 2017. "Bubble Formation and (In)Efficient Markets in Learning‐to‐forecast and optimise Experiments," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(605), pages 581-609, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:econjl:v:127:y:2017:i:605:p:f581-f609
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    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12341
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Biondo, Alessio Emanuele, 2017. "Learning to forecast, risk aversion, and microstructural aspects of financial stability," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-104, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    2. Cars Hommes & Anita Kopányi-Peuker & Joep Sonnemans, "undated". "Bubbles, crashes and information contagion in large-group asset market experiments," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-016/II, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. repec:eee:dyncon:v:88:y:2018:i:c:p:51-69 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:eme:rexezz:s0193-230620140000017002 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Agliari, Anna & Hommes, Cars H. & Pecora, Nicolò, 2016. "Path dependent coordination of expectations in asset pricing experiments: A behavioral explanation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 15-28.
    6. Tiziana Assenza & Te Bao & Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro, 2014. "Experiments on Expectations in Macroeconomics and Finance," Research in Experimental Economics,in: Experiments in Macroeconomics, volume 17, pages 11-70 Emerald Publishing Ltd.
    7. repec:eee:soceco:v:75:y:2018:i:c:p:45-54 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Jerome L Kreuser & Didier Sornette, 2017. "Super-Exponential RE Bubble Model with Efficient Crashes," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 17-33, Swiss Finance Institute.
    9. Nobuyuki Hanaki & Eizo Akiyama & Ryuichiro Ishikawa, 2016. "A Methodological Note on Eliciting Price Forecasts in Asset Market Experiments," GREDEG Working Papers 2016-02, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), University of Nice Sophia Antipolis.
    10. Hommes, Cars, 2018. "Behavioral & experimental macroeconomics and policy analysis: a complex systems approach," Working Paper Series 2201, European Central Bank.
    11. Hommes, C.H. & Bao, T., 2015. "When Speculators Meet Constructors: Positive and Negative Feedback in Experimental Housing Markets," CeNDEF Working Papers 15-10, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    12. Anita Kopanyi-Peuker & Matthias Weber, 2018. "Experience Does not Eliminate Bubbles: Experimental Evidence," Working Papers on Finance 1822, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    13. Nobuyuki Hanaki & Eizo Akiyama & Ryuichiro Ishikawa, 2017. "Effects of eliciting long-run price forecasts on market dynamics in asset market experiments," Working Papers halshs-01263661, HAL.
    14. repec:zbw:ifweej:201820 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Dávid Kopányi & Jean Paul Rabanal & Olga A. Rud & Jan Tuinstra, 2019. "Can successful forecasters help stabilize asset prices in a learning to forecast experiment?," Working Papers 140, Peruvian Economic Association.
    16. Makarewicz, Tomasz, 2019. "Traders, forecasters and financial instability: A model of individual learning of anchor-and-adjustment heuristics," BERG Working Paper Series 141, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    17. Florian Peters & Simas Kucinskas, 2018. "Measuring Biases in Expectation Formation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-058/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    18. Hanaki, Nobuyuki & Akiyama, Eizo & Ishikawa, Ryuichiro, 2018. "Effects of different ways of incentivizing price forecasts on market dynamics and individual decisions in asset market experiments," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 51-69.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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