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How Do Experienced Traders Respond to Inflows of Inexperienced Traders? An Experimental Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Eizo Akiyama

    () (Faculty of Engineering, Information and Systems, University of Tsukuba - University of Tsukuba)

  • Nobuyuki Hanaki

    () (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - ECM - Ecole Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales, IUF - Institut Universitaire de France - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Éducation nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche)

  • Ryuichiro Ishikawa

    () (Faculty of Engineering, Information and Systems, University of Tsukuba - University of Tsukuba)

Abstract

We conducted asset market experiments where one experienced subject (EH) interacts with five inexperienced subjects (1EH5H) to investigate how EHs change their price forecasts and trading strategies when faced with strategic uncertainty caused by inflows of inexperienced subjects. Only half the EHs initially forecasted prices deviating more from the fundamental values in 1EH5H than in the final round of the experiment in which they had previously participated. Furthermore, the majority of our EHs did not change their trading behaviour. Many EHs act as price stabilisers when the inflow of inexperienced subjects is not associated with other changes in market conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Eizo Akiyama & Nobuyuki Hanaki & Ryuichiro Ishikawa, 2013. "How Do Experienced Traders Respond to Inflows of Inexperienced Traders? An Experimental Analysis," Working Papers halshs-00920413, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00920413
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00920413
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tomoe Hoshihata & Ryuichiro Ishikawa & Nobuyuki Hanaki & Eizo Akiyama, 2017. "Flat Bubbles in Long-Horizon Experiments: Results from two Market Conditions," GREDEG Working Papers 2017-32, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), University of Nice Sophia Antipolis.
    2. Nobuyuki Hanaki & Eizo Akiyama & Ryuichiro Ishikawa, 2017. "Effects of eliciting long-run price forecasts on market dynamics in asset market experiments," Working Papers halshs-01263661, HAL.
    3. Nobuyuki Hanaki & Eizo Akiyama & Yukihiko Funaki & Ryuichiro Ishikawa, 2017. "Diversity in Cognitive Ability Enlarges Mispricing in Experimental Asset Markets," GREDEG Working Papers 2017-08, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), University of Nice Sophia Antipolis.
    4. Nobuyuki Hanaki & Eizo Akiyama & Ryuichiro Ishikawa, 2017. "Behavioral Uncertainty and the Dynamics of Traders' Confidence in their Price Forecasts," GREDEG Working Papers 2017-18, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), University of Nice Sophia Antipolis.
    5. Eizo Akiyama & Nobuyuki Hanaki & Ryuichiro Ishikawa, 2017. "It is Not Just Confusion! Strategic Uncertainty in an Experimental Asset Market," Post-Print halshs-01294917, HAL.
    6. repec:eee:dyncon:v:88:y:2018:i:c:p:51-69 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Razen, Michael & Huber, Jürgen & Kirchler, Michael, 2017. "Cash inflow and trading horizon in asset markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 359-384.
    8. Nobuyuki Hanaki & Eizo Akiyama & Ryuichiro Ishikawa, 2018. "Behavioral uncertainty and the dynamics of traders' confidence in their price forecasts ," Post-Print hal-01712301, HAL.
    9. repec:eee:dyncon:v:88:y:2018:i:c:p:121-136 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:eme:rexezz:s0193-230620140000017002 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:eee:gamebe:v:106:y:2017:i:c:p:188-208 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Tiziana Assenza & Te Bao & Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro, 2014. "Experiments on Expectations in Macroeconomics and Finance," Research in Experimental Economics,in: Experiments in Macroeconomics, volume 17, pages 11-70 Emerald Publishing Ltd.
    13. Michael Razen & J�rgen Huber & Michael Kirchler, 2016. "Cash Inflow and Trading Horizon in Asset Markets," Working Papers 2016-06, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
    14. Nobuyuki Hanaki & Eizo Akiyama & Ryuichiro Ishikawa, 2016. "A Methodological Note on Eliciting Price Forecasts in Asset Market Experiments," GREDEG Working Papers 2016-02, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), University of Nice Sophia Antipolis.
    15. Kirchler, Michael & Bonn, Caroline & Huber, Jürgen & Razen, Michael, 2015. "The “inflow-effect”—Trader inflow and price efficiency," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 1-19.
    16. Nobuyuki Hanaki & Eizo Akiyama & Ryuichiro Ishikawa, 2017. "Behavioral Uncertainty and the dynamics of traders' confidence in their Price forecasts," Working Papers halshs-01622466, HAL.
    17. A. Penalver & N. Hanaki & E. Akiyama & Y. Funaki & R. Ishikawa, 2017. "A Quantitative Easing Experiment," Working papers 651, Banque de France.
    18. Nobuyuki Hanaki & Eizo Akiyama & Ryuichiro Ishikawa, 2018. "Effects of different ways of incentivizing price forecasts on market dynamics and individual decisions in asset market experiments ," Post-Print hal-01712305, HAL.
    19. Loukas Balafoutas & Simon Czermak & Marc Eulerich & Helena Fornwagner, 2017. "Incentives for dishonesty: An experimental study with internal auditors," Working Papers 2017-06, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
    20. Nobuyuki Hanaki & Angela Sutan & Marc Willinger, 2016. "The Strategic Environment Effect in Beauty Contest Games," GREDEG Working Papers 2016-05, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), University of Nice Sophia Antipolis.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    strategic uncertainty; experience; heterogeneity; experiment; asset markets;

    JEL classification:

    • C90 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - General
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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